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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GENEVIEVE WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 26/1500 
UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 137.0W MOVING WEST 
OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 
KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER ASCAT 
PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED.  SOME 
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE 
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. 
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 107.3W AT 
26/1500 UTC MOVING NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT. A SLIGHTLY 
FASTER WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. A 
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE N WITHIN 
240 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM 
LATER TODAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF A 1007 MB 
LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 14.5N127W IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AND ABOUT 60 
NM TO THE NW OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. CURRENTLY...THE NHC TROPICAL 
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN 
AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IS EXPECTED TO 
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 117W/118W FROM 10N TO 20N MOVING 
WESTWARD 15 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH...MAINLY FROM 08N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W TO TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION EIGHT-E NEAR 14N107W TO 10N118W TO 1007 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 14.5N127W TO 12N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N E OF 81W AND FROM 09N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 
10N BETWEEN 115W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 34N131W TO 30N129W TO 16N138W.  
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 125W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH MAINLY W OF 120W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EXTENDS A RIDGE 
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 
27N118W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS S OF THE RIDGE NEAR 
22N115W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S TO NEAR 17N114W. AN INVERTED 
TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 08N113W. AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS NEAR 17N102W. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED 
BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. N TO NE FLOW ALOFT 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REGION E OF 100W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT WINDS 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 
THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 
20 KT OR LESS BY SUN NIGHT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WAS 
NOTED THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS 
THIS AFTERNOON. 

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N 
OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE AND GENEVIEVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE 
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WWD IN TANDEM WITH 
GENEVIEVE. 

$$ 
GR


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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-Jul-2014 15:56:56 UTC