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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...THE VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG STORM FORCE 
N-NE WINDS OF 40-50 KT ACROSS THE GULF AS WELL AS JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM WAVEHEIGHTS TO 25 FT. NE-E 
WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTEND AS FAR S AS 07N BETWEEN 94W-101W...AND 
EXTEND AS FAR W AS 11N109W. THE STORM FORM FORCE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE WINDS OF ABOUT 30-45 KT EARLY 
THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY SAT...AND JUST 
BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 
THE 9-12 FT RANGE. AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER...THE 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE DIMINISHING TREND REACHING TO 20-25 KT 
ACROSS THE GULF BY EARLY SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE FOR BEYOND THE 
DISCUSSION RANGE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF 
INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE MON NIGHT AND PERHAPS LAST THROUGH 
LATE WED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WSW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
AT 07N78W TO 07N91W WHERE LATEST SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATES A 
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES W TO 07N101W TO 10N113W TO 
09N125W...THEN TURNS SW TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W-113W...WITHIN 60 NM N OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 125W-128W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
EXISTING N OF 20N SUGGESTING RATHER STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS 
PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. S OF 
20N...SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE...IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...EASTWARD 
TOWARDS W CENTRAL MEXICO. SOME OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
COMBINING WITH DEBRIS LEFTOVER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ 
CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.

AT THE SURFACE...THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAKENING 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N133W TO 25N140W...WHILE A 
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS TO ITS NW ALONG A POSITION FROM 
32N135W TO 28N140W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE 
STATIONARY FRONT THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WITH THE MERGED FRONT 
BECOMING STATIONARY BY EARLY ON SAT FROM NEAR 32N129W TO NEAR 
25N136W...AND WEAKEN FURTHER TO A TROUGH BY EARLY ON MON.

LONG PERIOD PRIMARILY NW SWELLS ARE IDENTIFIED TO BE NW OF A 
LINE FROM 32N123W TO 16N129W TO 09N140W PRODUCING COMBINED 
WAVEHEIGHTS OF 8-10 FT. THE AREA AFFECTED BY THESE SWELLS IS 
FORECAST TO SHRINK TO NW OF A LINE FROM 32N135W TO 26N140W BY 
EARLY SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW WATERS SUN 
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT AND 
BUILDING SEAS TO THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT. A NEW BATCH OF LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON WITH COMBINED SEAS 
TO 21 FT EXPECTED NEAR 32N140W.

THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO HAS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 119N 
FROM 08N-14N MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS FEATURE HAS A WEAK CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION AT 10N119W BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. WEAK 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CIRCULATION.

ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 138W/139W FROM 08N-
13N. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION SOME ALONG AND 
NEAR THE ITCZ W OF 137W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF THE 
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

OTHER GAP WINDS...                                            
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT RELATED TO CARIBBEAN HIGH 
PRES WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE THE LATE NIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT...THEN THE NOCTURNAL MAX 
WILL REACH 25 KT ONLY SAT THROUGH TUE NIGHTS. 

$$
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Nov-2014 15:54:22 UTC