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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290941
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0800 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.0N 113.9W AT 29/0900 
UTC MOVING W-NW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE NW IS 
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED WAS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF 
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 0 NM N QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND IN THE REMAINDER 
AREA FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 105W-119W. ANDRES IS FORECAST TO 
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A 
HURRICANE TODAY. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N TO 15N ALONG 101W AND HAS BEEN 
PROGRESSING W AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE MOST 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS FOUND 
WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 103W 
WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION RESIDED. THE WAVE 
IS FORECAST TO SLOW TODAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANDRES. LOW PRESSURE IS 
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR 11N102W ON SAT AND FOLLOW A N-NW TRACK... 
POSSIBLY SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WEEKEND.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 09.5N123W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT OF 
CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF CENTER. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

1010 MB LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR 10N136W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE... EXCEPT 270 NM W QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE W-SW AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

CURRENTLY THERE IS NOT A WELL DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH OR ITCZ.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N AND 
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL LOWS W OF 120W IS MAINTAINING AN 
AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES FROM 11.5N TO 16N W OF 124W WITH 
COMBINED SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WERE PARTIALLY CAPTURED BY 
THE 0620 UTC ASCAT AND 0428 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASSES. THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE 
INFRINGES UPON IT FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THE EASTERN LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 09.5N123W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. 
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLACKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSE 
WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVERNIGHT 
TONIGHT.

A DEEP-LAYERED LOW CENTERED N-NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS 
MULTIPLE VORTICIES PASSING TO IT S. AT THE SURFACE...TWO 
DISTINCT BOUNDARIES WERE ANALYZED OVER FORECAST WATERS. ONE FROM 
30N137W TO 26N140W AND S SECOND FROM 32N138W TO 20N140W. THE 
LEAD BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY AND THE WESTERN BOUNDARY 
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NW WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXTENDING 
FROM 32N136W TO 27N140W EARLY SAT AND FROM 32N134W TO 25N140W 
EARLY SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
EXPECTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 
20-25 KT AND 8 FT...RESPECTIVELY.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE 0344 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT E 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS FROM 
10N-12N E OF 89W ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER 
SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE SW NEAR 07N89W 
IS COMBINING WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW TO FUNNEL THESE WINDS 
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM 
THE AREA. 

$$ 
SCHAUER

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Page last modified: Friday, 29-May-2015 09:41:32 UTC