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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311024 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE MAR 31 2015

CORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION INFORMATION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N93W TO 03N114W TO 07N124W...TO A  
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 08N124W TO 04N128W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 06N128W BEYOND 04N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W 
AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 
115W AND 117W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 
11N123W TO 06N127W TO 05N130W. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N110W TO 12N112W TO 10N113W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 116W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF 12N BETWEEN 115W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...                                                

A SOUTH-OF-THE-EQUATOR ITCZ IS ALONG 05S86W 02S98W 03S111W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01S TO 03S 
BETWEEN 101W AND 104W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04S BETWEEN 89W AND 97W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N114W TO 21N119W...TO 16N129W 11N134W...AND TO 
04N136W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT IS IN THE ITCZ NEAR THE 
08N124W-TO-04N128W SURFACE TROUGH...IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 25N NORTHWARD...FROM 
THE 29N114W-TO-04N136W TROUGH WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 
08N100W...TO 13N115W. 

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N134W TO 30N139W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N139W BEYOND 30N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N137W 26N133W 22N126W...TO 18N113W.

EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94W 
AND 96W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AT THE START OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD. 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WILL COVER THE AREA 
FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 96W FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR 
SO. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN TO 20 KT OR LESS AND THE SEA 
HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM THE MIDDAY HOURS FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN NW SWELL WILL MOVE 
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FROM THE AREA OF 
30N123W...TOWARD 14N140W. 

GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 
ACTIVE THIS MORNING UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. THE SAME SCENARIO WILL 
START AGAIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET FOR THE ENTIRE TIME.

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 31-Mar-2015 10:24:38 UTC