000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052134
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 05 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Central East Pacific (EP96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred
miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a
trough of low pressure. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
The observed shower and thunderstorm activity are of the
scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong type intensity 
covering the area from 13N to 17N between 100W and 110W. There 
is a medium chance of tropical formation within the next two 
days, and a high chance within the next seven days. Please refer 
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W, from 07N northward, 
moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen west of the wave from 05N to 10N.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 106W from 10N to 20N,
moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure of 1010 mb is 
along the wave axis near 15N.  Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above
for more on this feature. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N98W. It resumes 
from the 1010 mb low pressure near 15N106W southwestward to
09N121W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N127W to beyond
08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen from 05N to 09N between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 04N to 09N between 90W and 95W, also within 
60 nm N of the trough between 109W-114W and between 117W-118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the 
potential for tropical cyclone development well off the coast of
Mexico late this weekend or early next week. 

The remnant low of Flossie is just west of the Baja California 
Sur waters, centered near 24N119W with a pressure of 1013 mb. 
Moderate winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted near the low.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted south 
of southwestern Mexico with a developing area of low pressure. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2 to 3 ft are in the Gulf 
of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5 to 6 ft, 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds and rough 
seas are expected off the coast of southwestern Mexico for the 
rest of this weekend as an area of low pressure moves generally 
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. Gradual 
development of this system is anticipated during the next few 
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this 
weekend or early next week. There is a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation within the next two days, and a high chance 
within the next seven days. Looking ahead, an area of low 
pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of 
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of 
this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-
northwestward. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are noted over and downstream of the
Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere N of
the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range, except S and SW
of the Galapagos Islands where seas are reaching 7 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate E winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo during the rest of the weekend before strengthening 
early next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail over the 
regional waters into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. Gentle to 
moderate winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail over the 
discussion waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into early next week. Moderate to
rough seas in the north-central waters, N of 25N between 120W 
and 130W, will be reinforced by another pulse of moderate to 
rough seas from long-period N swell on Sun, then gradually 
subside into Mon. Fresh to occasionally strong winds and rough 
seas will develop over the waters E of 120W on Sun as a tropical 
wave, with a possible developing area of low pressure moves 
across the area. Please see above for more on the potential for 
tropical cyclone development associated with this system.

$$
Aguirre