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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC MON MAR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N89W TO 04N94W...CONTINUING AS ITCZ FROM 
04N94W TO 06N117W TO 05N124W BEYOND 06N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM TO THE NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 117W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 138W/139W FROM 10N TO 15N. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. 

A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 07N79W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 
10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...TO 27N120W...TO 23N123W...TO 21N128W...TO 16N36W... 
TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N137W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO...TO 14N94W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 14N111W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN...THROUGH 22N107W...BEYOND 30N105W IN NORTHERN MEXICO. 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 120W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 95W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 32N135W...TO 23N130W TO 18N118W TO 13N104W. 

EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS FROM 14N 
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AREA OF 20 
TO 30 KNOT WINDS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY LONGER AND MORE NARROW AT 
THE 06-HOUR FORECAST TIME...MEANING THIS MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. 
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 12N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 97W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET. 20 TO 
25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL 
AROUND MIDDAY...STILL FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. 
ONE PULSE OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL 
OCCUR DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL SEEP INTO 
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR 
SO...AND THEN DISAPPEAR AFTER THE 24-HOUR FORECAST TIME.

8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN SWELL WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD...FROM 24N 
BETWEEN 119W AND 135W. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SEA 
HEIGHTS FROM SWELL EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


.30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 11N86W 
TO 10N88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 
25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10.5N TO 11.5N E OF 88W...INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.



GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 
ACTIVE TOMORROW FROM SUNRISE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS. THE SEA 
HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FEET. EXPECT A BURST OF 20 TO 25 
KNOT NE WINDS AT 48 HOURS...MEANING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FEET.

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Monday, 30-Mar-2015 10:05:28 UTC