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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 12N130W MOVING W AT 10 KT.  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL 
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES W OR W-NW 
AT AROUND 10 KT. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES 
THIS LOW PRES AREA A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW PRES AREA DEVELOPED 
AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 129W/130W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                           
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE E 
PACIFIC REGION ALONG 98W N OF 09N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 98W AND 105W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W FROM 09N TO 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE ONE ALONG 98W...PARTICULARLY FROM 09N 
TO 15N.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N120W TO 11N123W MOVING W AT 
15-20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W TO 09N104W TO 
10N114W TO 14N123W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N130W 1007 MB TO BEYOND 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 80W AND 
FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W 
AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 91W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 105W AND 109W 
AND ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 14N W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N132W TO 18N135W. MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 130W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
MAINLY W OF 130W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 22N116W. AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 17N105W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 
11N112W. A DIFFUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS 
HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION E OF 110W. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THIS MORNING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT 
WINDS IN THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT 
TONIGHT INTO FRI AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE .   

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS 
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N 
OF 15N W OF 115W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE AN THE LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 12N130W IS PRODUCING 
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 125W WITH 
SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF 
THESE WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT NW WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 117W 
AND 121W BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. 

A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM HAS DEVELOPED 
FROM 21N TO 25.5W BETWEEN 107W AND 111W. THIS CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY IS MOVING WWD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$ 
GR