000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260253
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
052 UTC Mon Jun 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Dora is centered near 16.4N 104.3W at 26/0300 
UTC, moving west-northwest or 300 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated 
minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
has increased to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate 
and scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm N and 60 nm
S semicircles of Dora. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 18N between 101W and 
106W. Dora is forecast to continue on a west-northwest track 
while intensifying, reaching hurricane strength early Monday 
before starting a weakening trend on Tuesday as the system moves
over cooler waters and into a more stable environment. Swells 
generated by Dora are affecting portions of the coast of southwest
Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northwestward and 
begin affecting portions of the coast of the southern Baja 
California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dora is expected
to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along coastal 
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through 
Monday. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details on the track and intensity
of Dora, and the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
Headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on marine impacts 
of Dora.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 12N95W, then
resumes west of Dora at 13N105W to 09N120W to 08N130W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N 
to 07N between 81W and 88W, from 09N to 11N between 101W and 
111W, and from 06N to 09N between 128W and 138W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features for more information on Tropical Storm Dora.

Outside of the influence of Dora, a ridge dominates the offshore
forecast waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the 
Baja California, gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf of 
California, and light to gentle winds off the coast of southwest 
Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of the Baja 
California Peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California, and 5-6
ft elsewhere. These conditions will prevail into the early part 
of the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue 
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft 
through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell is
expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands Monday night into Tuesday, building seas up to 10 ft 
late on Tuesday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 31N125W, while a 
surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pressure, located N of
the area near 36N132W to 27N136W. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds are noted west of the trough. Light and variable winds 
prevail elsewhere N of 20N W of 125W, with gentle to moderate 
winds prevailing elsewhere, with the exception of an area of 
moderate to fresh trades from 10N to 16N W of 130W. Seas in the 8
to 10 ft range are noted per altimeter data across the north 
waters while an area of seas of 8 ft is seen in association with
the trade winds combined with southerly swell. These seas are 
forecast to subside below 8 ft in about 24 hours.

$$
GR