000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302029
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N95W to 08N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N105W to 07N115W to 09N125W, and from 
07N131W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 97W and 105W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident within 60 nm either 
side of the ITCZ between 110W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent altimeter satellite passes confirm large NW persists off
Baja California Norte, beyond 90 nm offshore, with wave heights 
at least 12 ft west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh winds
continue off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, between 
high pressure north of the area, and lower pressure inland. 
Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas persist elsewhere 
across the open offshore waters of Mexico, with light breezes and
slight seas across the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large NW swell
will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of Isla
Guadalupe into Sat, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off
Baja. Moderate SW winds will pulse to fresh across the northern
Gulf of California tonight, ahead of a dissipating cold front 
moving into the region. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate 
winds will persist across Mexican offshore waters, along with 
moderate combined seas primarily in NW swell over open waters. 
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish off Baja California 
late Thu into Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens 
and the swell subsides.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW flow well offshore is supporting a few clusters of 
showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters from western
Panama and off southwest Nicaragua. Mostly gentle to moderate 
breezes persist elsewhere across all of the offshore waters 
zones, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will continue tonight 
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 
waters Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 
expected across the region Thu through Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from high pressure centered well north of 
the area southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 05N 
and west of 120W. Earlier altimeter satellite passes confirmed 
combined seas of 7 to 10 ft from 05N to 25N west of 130W. Fresh 
to strong NW to N winds are noted north of 25N between 120W and 
130W between the high pressure and lower pressure farther east. 
NW swell of 8 to 12 ft accompanies these winds. Farther south, a 
weak surface trough continues to move slowly westward along the 
ITCZ near 130W, but has also shift west of its supporting upper 
trough along 120W. Divergent flow aloft between this upper trough
and and upper ridge farther east is working with low level trade
wind convergence to support clusters of shower and thunderstorms
along the ITCZ between 100W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds 
and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern or
resultant conditions are expected through mid week. Winds and
seas will diminish later in the week as the high pressure
weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. 

$$
Christensen