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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED MAR 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0830 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 48 HOURS...

GALE-FORCE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WINDS...RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 
KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...WILL DEVELOP IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N103W TO 06N108W TO 04N121W TO 07N140W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM THE ITCZ TO 
10N FROM 128W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N87W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 05N91W...TO 03N95W TO 04N98W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 95W AND 
97W. 

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N111W TO 10N114W TO 06N115W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION... 

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE NORTHERN 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 15N126W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS THE 
REMNANT OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT. 

SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM YESTERDAY SHOWED TRADEWIND FLOW FROM 10N 
TO 20N FROM 130W WESTWARD. THIS TRADEWIND FLOW AND SEA HEIGHTS 
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS.

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE 
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST 
OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN 
THU.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BENIGN FOR 
MOST OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A 
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH A COLD FRONT...
BURSTING TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... 
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT THIS MORNING AND THIS 
AFTERNOON. THE WIND FLOW WEAKENS IN SPEED DURING THE EARLY 
EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS PICK UP MORE TO 20 
KNOTS MORE DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO THAN IN THE GULF AREA ON 
THURSDAY MORNING AND DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 20 KNOT WINDS 
RETURN IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN 
THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO 04N-05N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN 
WEAKEN EARLY THURSDAY BELOW 20 KNOTS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS.

$$ 
MT


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Mar-2015 10:05:57 UTC