000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060752
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0740 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N85W to 10N103W to 06N124W. The ITCZ extends from 05N123W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 11N between 103W and 119W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and a weakening cold
front moving across the Baja California Norte offshore waters is
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds offshore the peninsula, 
except for locally strong winds N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas with 
these winds are in the range of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell. In the 
Gulf of California, winds are light and variable S of 27N along 
with seas to 3 ft. N of 27N in the northern Gulf, moderate to 
fresh N-NW winds are ongoing with seas to 4 ft. Elsewhere in the
S and SW Mexican offshore waters winds are light to gentle from 
the W-NW with moderate seas to 6 ft in southerly swell.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds N of Cabo San
Lazaro will continue through this morning. South of Cabo San 
Lazaro, fresh winds will dominate as a weakening cold front 
moves southward across the Baja California Norte offshore waters 
and the northern Gulf of California through today. NW swell with
seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front across the Baja California
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro today through Thu. Winds 
along the Baja peninsula will diminish to mainly moderate speeds 
early Tue morning and prevail through Fri night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light variable winds prevail across the Central America offshore
waters with 3-6 ft seas in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the
S-SE with 6 to 8 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, winds south of 07N will increase to moderate 
to locally fresh speeds from Tue morning through Fri. Light to 
gentle variable winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with 
moderate seas due to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of
the Galapagos Islands will continue for most of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging across the subtropical waters is intersected by a
weaking cold front that extends from 29N115W to 26N121W where it
transitions to a shearline that continues to 23N130W to 24N140W.
Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are noted behind the front
and the shearline along with 5-7 ft seas. Between the ridge and 
the ITCZ and W of 130W, moderate to fresh NE winds and 7-9 ft 
seas in NE swell prevails. South of the ITCZ, gentle and moderate
SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 9 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to
gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas 
with these winds will be 5 to 9 ft and will subside by Wed. The 
cold front will continue to move S-SE and dissipate today. NW 
swell following the front will impact the waters mainly N of 25W 
and E of 130W tonight through Thu night, bringing seas to 10 ft 
over the NE subtropical waters. The swell will subside below 8 ft
by Thu night.

$$
Ramos