000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170804
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 17N, with axis near 109W, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection described in the section 
below.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N, with axis near 119W, 
moving westward at 5-10 kt. Convection described in the section 
below.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N, with axis near 136W, 
moving westward around 10 kt. Convection described in the section
below. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N130W. The ITCZ 
continues from 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 16N and W of 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh SE winds prevail over the northern portion of the Gulf of 
California, along with slight seas due to the pressure gradient 
between a surface trough off NW Mexico and a surface ridge over 
the E Pacific subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh N winds are 
ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas in SW 
swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail along with 
moderate seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh SE winds over the 
northern Gulf of California will prevail through today. Pulsing 
moderate to fresh N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through tonight as high pressure builds over central
Mexico. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds beginning on Fri
morning into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens 
further, resulting in rough seas. Afterward, winds in the 
Tehuantepec region will diminish to moderate to fresh, continuing
through Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Papagayo along with rough seas, reaching as far as 90W. Pulsing 
moderate N winds also continue over the Gulf of Panama with 
moderate seas. Moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between Ecuador
and The Galapagos Islands with rough seas in SW swell. Moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are elsewhere 
across the Central America offshore waters.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will
continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, diminishing
to moderate to fresh speeds by Mon. Moderate to fresh N winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through tonight. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and The 
Galapagos Islands through Mon night with rough seas subsiding SW 
of the Galapagos today. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1035 mb well northwest of the discussion waters near
44N146W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough. Moderate trades are in the belt from 11N to 220N west of 112W,
and from 08N to 14N east of 112W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds
are elsewhere north of 20N with rough seas in NE swell over the 
far NW waters, N of 28N and W of 138W. South of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail with moderate 
seas, except rough S of 06N.

For the forecast, rough seas over the NW waters will subside
this morning. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas 
will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N through
Mon night, except for rough seas developing W of 130W Sat night 
through Mon. These winds and seas will be modulated by the 
passage of several tropical waves under a prevalent subtropical 
ridge through the forecast period.

$$
ERA