000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170804 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N to 17N, with axis near 109W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection described in the section below. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N, with axis near 119W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Convection described in the section below. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N, with axis near 136W, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 16N and W of 97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh SE winds prevail over the northern portion of the Gulf of California, along with slight seas due to the pressure gradient between a surface trough off NW Mexico and a surface ridge over the E Pacific subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas in SW swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail along with moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh SE winds over the northern Gulf of California will prevail through today. Pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight as high pressure builds over central Mexico. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds beginning on Fri morning into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens further, resulting in rough seas. Afterward, winds in the Tehuantepec region will diminish to moderate to fresh, continuing through Mon night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo along with rough seas, reaching as far as 90W. Pulsing moderate N winds also continue over the Gulf of Panama with moderate seas. Moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands with rough seas in SW swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend, diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds by Mon. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through tonight. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Mon night with rough seas subsiding SW of the Galapagos today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1035 mb well northwest of the discussion waters near 44N146W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate trades are in the belt from 11N to 220N west of 112W, and from 08N to 14N east of 112W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere north of 20N with rough seas in NE swell over the far NW waters, N of 28N and W of 138W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate to fresh winds prevail with moderate seas, except rough S of 06N. For the forecast, rough seas over the NW waters will subside this morning. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N through Mon night, except for rough seas developing W of 130W Sat night through Mon. These winds and seas will be modulated by the passage of several tropical waves under a prevalent subtropical ridge through the forecast period. $$ ERA
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Page last modified: Thursday, 17-Jul-2025 14:10:08 UTC