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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING S INTO TROPICS 
INVOF 87W. 

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS SE MEXICO EXTENDING S INTO TROPICS INVOF OF 
98W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 12N INVOF 125W.

TROPICAL WAVE S OF 14N INVOF 135W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOONAL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N85W TO 04.5N98W TO 08N118W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 07N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W...AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N 
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 125W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N 
AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES TO SPAN 
NORTH AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT OCEANIC AREAS TODAY. A LARGE 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23.5N123W 
COVERS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 110W AND 130W...WITH A 
NARROW TROUGH EXTENDING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA 
AND INTO W COASTAL MEXICO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE W CENTERED ALONG 139W...WHILE WEAK AND 
ELONGATED RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE E OF THE CYCLONE...FROM A WEAK 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N101W E-SE TO COASTAL COLOMBIA. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...W OF 
110W...CONTINUES TO VENTILATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ 
THERE. ALSO...SPEED DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE CYCLONE IS AIDING IN SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION MOVING FROM 
NW MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. 

AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NE 
PACIFIC NEAR 46N137W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE S AND ACROSS THE 
LOCAL NW WATERS...THEN RIDGES SE TO NEAR 21N117W. THE MODEST 
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS S OF 25N AND TO THE W OF 
123W...WHERE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 6-8 FT. EXCEPT FOR PERSISTENT 
GAP WINDS NEAR THE COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 
OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.

GAP WINDS...CONTINUED FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WINDS 
BETWEEN NW COSTA RICA AND GUATEMALA. GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO PULSE 
TO AT LEAST 25 KT AT NIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES IN 
THE LEE OF LAKE NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
FONSECA. THESE 3 GAP WINDS ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MERGE 
INTO A BROAD AREA OF NE TO E TRADEWINDS EXTENDING FROM 10N TO 
13N FROM THE COAST W TO 92W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH 
WINDS PEAKING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT 25 TO NEAR 30 
KT. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS FLUCTUATING FROM 7 TO 11 FT THROUGH WED 
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE MODESTLY THU.  

$$ 
STRIPLING

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Jun-2015 15:51:51 UTC