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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261603
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1350 UTC Sun Feb 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ extends from 04N115W to 03N118W to 03N129W to 00N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within
60 nm either side of the ITCZ axis between 122W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW winds over the Gulf of California near Los Cabos have 
decreased to moderate speeds and seas have subsided as the 
pressure gradient between low pressure over central Mexico and 
high pressure centered west of Baja California Norte continues to
weaken. The high will shift eastward during the next couple of
days, allowing winds to diminish further to light to gentle 
speeds. A weakening cold front will move across Baja California 
Norte and the northern Gulf of California Monday night and 
Tuesday. This may bring a brief and fairly localized pulse of 20 
to 25 kt westerly gap winds to the northern Gulf of California 
before dawn on Tuesday. Looking farther ahead, NW winds will 
strengthen around mid week as strong high pressure builds north 
of the area. Seas in offshore zone PMZ011 could reach 8 ft on 
Wednesday.

Farther south, fresh winds are pulsing into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec north of 15N this morning. Winds will quickly 
diminish as high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico shifts 
eastward and return flow sets up over the western Gulf. Looking 
ahead, a cold front will sweep through the SW Gulf of Mexico by 
Thursday and funnel strong gap winds into the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gale force winds will be possible Thursday night
through Saturday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A very weak pressure pattern prevails from the offshore waters 
of the eastern Tropical Pacific northeastward over the western 
Caribbean. Light to gentle breezes are the result across the 
region. Trade winds strengthening across the SW Caribbean in 
response to building high pressure to the north will support 
fresh to strong gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo starting late
Sunday night. Nocturnal pulsing of the winds is then expected 
through the upcoming week. Similarly, expect pulsing fresh 
northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Panama. The areas of 
combined seas 8 ft or greater generated by the gap winds over the
Gulfs of Tehuantepec and papagayo may become large enough to 
merge on Friday and Saturday. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes 
will persist.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front reaches from 30N130W to 25N136W. Winds in the 
vicinity of the front have since diminished to 20 kt or less as 
the mid-level trough north of the front lifts out to the 
NE. Long period NW swell are following the front and causing seas
north of 25N and west of 137W to build to between 8 and 9 ft. 
The front will continue to move eastward and extend from Baja 
California Norte at 30N116W to 25N123W by Tuesday morning. NW 
swell in the far NW portion of the discussion area will decay 
below 8 ft by tonight.

Seas around 8 ft are present farther south from 10N to 17N
between 129W and 139W. The seas are the result of a mix of
trade-wind swell generated by moderate trade winds and longer 
period NW swell. This area of seas will decay by early Monday.

A persistent surface trough is analyzed from 04N114W to 10N110W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 10N between 109W and 113W. The trough will continue west
and reach near 120W by late Monday before it damps out. 

Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build north of the area
through mid week, allowing 15 to 20 kt NE winds to develop across
the entire region west of 120W. Seas will build to between 8 and 9
ft mainly in a mix of NE wind waves and NW swell.

$$
cam


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Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Feb-2017 16:03:37 UTC