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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
1005 UTC THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 16.7N 105.0W 988 MB AT 0900 
UTC SEP 18...OR ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO...MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. AT 18/0300 UTC. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES...WHILE  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 150 NM NE...180 NM SE...270 NM SW AND 240 NM NW 
QUADRANTS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW TODAY AND 
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...THEN GRADUALLY 
BEND MORE W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL 
WINDSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT POLO...AND WILL LIMIT 
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...COOLER 
WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE 
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF POLO. AS POLO PASSES BY THE MEXICAN 
COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTER BANDS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE COASTAL ZONES FROM 
WESTERN GUERRERO TO JALISCO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS 
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS PREVIOUSLY 
AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND ODILE. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE 
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC 
AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N88W TO 12N92W... 
WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES SW OF HURRICANE POLO NEAR 
13N107W TO 11.5N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO 10N127W TO 13.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH E OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG FROM 07.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                              
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 30N126W TO 23N140W. NW 
SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING SEAS TO 8-10 FT. THE FRONT 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS W OF 
120W CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF 
THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS THE FRONTAL TROUGH ABUTS IT THEN DISSIPATED...WITH A NEW 
HIGH AND RIDGE BUILDING MODESTLY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI 
THROUGH SAT.

LONG PERIOD SW SOUTHERN HEMI SWELL AFFECTING THE WATERS E OF 
110W THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS SUBSIDED AND WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH 
FRI...WITH A NEW AND SMALLER PULSE OF SW SWELL ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR OVER THE WEEKEND.

$$ 
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 09:59:29 UTC