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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250401
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

The wind speeds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to slow 
down, from 20 to 30 knots tonight, and then to 20 knots or less 
by sunrise tomorrow on Saturday. Those 20 knots or less wind 
speeds will continue until just before sunrise on Sunday. The 
sea heights will subside from 10 feet tonight, to less than 8 
feet by Sunday. The wind speeds will increase to N 20 to 25 
knots around mid-morning on Sunday. Expect Gale-force winds to 
return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec around midday on Sunday. The 
sea heights may reach 11 feet eventually, after the arrival of 
the gale-force winds.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N78W TO 09N84W TO 08N100W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 08N100W TO 09N110W TO 10N127W BEYOND 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 79W 
AND 83W...WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 109W AND 135W...AND 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 127W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 87W, AND WITHIN 150 NM N 
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 
12N108W TO 15N111W TO 16N115W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 17N 
northward, with mainly light to gentle NW winds and seas of 3 to 
4 ft. Expect the sea heights to reach 5 to 7 feet tonight, stay 
that way for the next 24 to 36 hours, before continuing in the 5 
to 6 foot range for Sunday afternoon. Long-period NW swell, with 
sea heights ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet, will move eastward 
into the area, starting on Monday morning and arriving by 
midnight Tuesday or so.

Expect light and gentle winds until early Monday morning. The 
surface pressure gradient will start to increase on Monday. 
Fresh breezes start to cross 30N from 120W eastward on Monday at 
sunrise, culminating in NW winds 20 to 25 knots and 8 foot sea 
heights from 28N northward from 117W eastward. Eight foot sea 
heights overall will cover the area from 120W eastward, to the 
NW of the line from 25N120W to 28N115W at the coast of Mexico.

Gulf of California: Expect gentle to locally moderate winds 
across the entire Gulf tonight and Saturday morning. The surface 
pressure gradient will relax more after Saturday, with light and 
variable winds expected through Monday. The surface pressure 
gradient will increase early on Tuesday morning, bringing NW 20 
to 25 knot winds into the area, from 30N northward. The NW 20 to 
25 knot winds will shift southward, covering the area from 26N 
to 29N during the day on Tuesday, ending early Wednesday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will 
start during the early morning hours of Saturday, and continue 
until midday Saturday. The sea heights will be lower than 8 
feet. NE to E winds 20 to 25 knots will pulse again, starting 
around sunrise on Sunday, and end around midday, six hours 
later. The sea heights will be less than 8 feet during the next 
48 hours. Another pulse of NE winds 20 to 25 knots will start 
during the early morning hours of Monday, and last until sunset 
on Monday.

Light and variable winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas are expected 
elsewhere through Sun night to the N of the monsoon trough which 
has been meandering from 08N to 10N. Moderate southerly winds, 
and 3 to 6 ft seas, are forecast S of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A cold front is along 28N140W 25N139W 23N140W. A 1007 mb low 
pressure center is near 29N143W. The low center is forecast to 
move NE during the next 24 hours, and end up well to the north 
of the discussion area. The cold front is forecast along 30N134W 
25N135W 19N140W on Saturday night. Expect S to SE winds 20 to 25 
knots and sea heights to 9 feet N of 26N between 136W AND 139W. 
Sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet will be elsewhere to 
the W of the line from 30N129W to 24N124W to 12N132W to 09N140W. 
The cold front is forecast to be along 30N125W 25N130W on Sunday 
night, and then become a dissipating cold front from 25N130W to 
19N140W. 20 to 25 knot wind speeds and sea heights ranging from 
9 feet to 12 feet will be from 20N to 25N W of 138W. Sea heights 
ranging from 8 feet to 14 feet will cover the rest of the area 
that is to the NW of the cold front. A small area of winds 20 
knots or less, and 8 foot seas, will be from 12N to 14N W of 
139W. A second area of winds 20 knots or less, and8 foot seas, 
will be from 07N southward from 116W westward.

$$
mt

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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Nov-2017 04:02:06 UTC