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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 09N102W to 05N120W to 02N140W. No 
significant convection observed.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Large long period NW swell associated with the cold front now 
with tail end over NW Mexico will sweep east and southeast 
through Wednesday night, affecting waters primarily west of the 
Baja Peninsula with 8 to 16 ft seas. This traduces to hazardous 
near-shore marine conditions and very dangerous surf along the 
coastline, which will gradually improve during the next three 
days. Otherwise, seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist west of 95W 
through Thursday. Model guidance suggests a classic setup for 
fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of California starting 
Wednesday night continuing through the upcoming weekend. These 
winds will expand across the entire Gulf of California and 
increase to near gale to gale force winds beginning Friday 
afternoon with seas building to 10 ft. Winds will be fresh to 
strong over the Pacific waters to the west of Baja Saturday and 
Sunday as gap winds bleed southwestward across the peninsula.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse through the Gulfs of 
Papagayo, Fonseca and Panama Tuesday night through the weekend. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the 
region through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 
5 ft until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to 
arriving NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge anchored by 1029 mb high pressure centered near 31N141W 
extends east-southeast to near 22N116W. The ridge is building 
eastward behind a cold front with tail end over NW Mexico. Large 
NW swell continue to spread SE across most of forecast waters 
with 8 ft seas encompassing almost the entire basin outside the 
Gulf of California and west of 95W. Another smaller but still 
significant set of NW swell that was generated behind a cold 
front that will remain NW of the discussion area will reach the 
northwest part of the area Wednesday morning. The area of 
reinforcing NW swell will then spread southeastward through 
Friday night. Seas will peak around 18 ft near 20N134W on Friday 
night. Forecast models remain in general agreement in developing 
an area of low pressure over the western waters near 10N137W on 
Thursday morning. As the low develops, a large accompanying area 
of strong to near gale force winds will be possible from 12N to 
26N W of 120W starting early Thursday morning. The low is 
anticipated to begin weakening and turn toward the WNW late 
Friday. The low will continue to weaken, which will allow the 
area of fresh to strong winds to vanish by late Saturday.

$$
Ramos

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Jan-2017 16:06:18 UTC