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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...THE GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE 
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FOR 29/0308 UTC HELPS 
IN ORDER TO VERIFY THE WARNING. THE FORECAST STARTS WITH GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND 10 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS 
WEAKEN TO LOWER THAN GALE-FORCE AT THE END OF THE NEXT 6 HOURS. 
20 TO 30 KNOT NORTH WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE 
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AFTER THAT...TO 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS EVENTUALLY 
SHRINK IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W AT 36 
HOURS...TO NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W AT 48 HOURS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N81W TO 06N85W TO 
05N88W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N88W TO 04N95W TO 06N103W TO 
06N108W. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 
110W/111W FROM 01N TO 11N. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N114W TO 
05N123W TO 07N130W. A SECOND NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH GOES 
FROM 13N136W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
09N136W...TO 05N136W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG 
FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W...FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 
90W AND 91W...FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...FROM 10N TO 
14N BETWEEN 126W AND 127W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 134W AND 
137W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 
14N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 109W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N124W...TO A  
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N127W...TO 23N130W...
BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH AND CONTINUING BEYOND 21N140W. 

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 06N102W...TO 15N114W TO 
23N117W...AND BEYOND 32N116W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 35N135W...THROUGH 32N132W...TO 22N125W...TO 18N105W. THE 
SURFACE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHER 
PRESSURE...AND THE COMPARATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG 
THE ITCZ...IS RESULTING IN 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 
10N TO 22N FROM 130W WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS E OF 125W...AND ARE REACHING THE CENTRAL 
AMERICAN AND MEXICAN COASTLINES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE 
SWELLS ARE GENERATING VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES...AND 
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE TODAY...BUT WILL 
GRADUALLY FADE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS...NORTHEAST TO 
EAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...ACROSS THIS GAP 
WIND REGION FROM SUNRISE TO THE MIDDAY HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS 
WILL FALL TO SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE MIDDAY HOURS 
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE REST 
OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Mar-2015 10:02:32 UTC