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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250251
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
042 UTC Sun Jun 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Satellite images indicate that the well-defined low pressure 
system located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of 
Acapulco, Mexico, has become a tropical depression named Four-E.
It is near 14.3N 100.0W at 25/0300 UTC or about 155 nm...290 KM 
S of Acapulco, Mexico moving west at 10 kt. On the forecast 
track, the center of the depression is expected to move parallel 
to but remain offshore of the coast of Mexico. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 
kt with gusts to 35 kt. Strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical 
storm on Sunday. This tropical system is expected to produce 
rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 5 inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of 
Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan through Monday. See latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N97W, then resumes W
of Tropical Depression Four-E at 11N102W to 09N110W to 09N126W.
The ITCZ axis continues from 09N126W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between 96W and 
102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found 
from 07N to 09N between 107W and 112W, from 07N to 10N between 
117W and 125W, and from 07N to 09N W of 135W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features for more information on T.D. Four-E.

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1017 mb centered near 26N128W extends
a ridge across the offshore forecast waters. Scatterometer data
indicate gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California and
across the Gulf of California, with light to gentle winds off 
the coast of southwest Mexico. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range off 
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula, 1-2 ft over the Gulf 
of California, and 5-6 ft elsewhere, with the exception of seas 
of 8-10 ft within about 120 nm NE quadrant of the aforementioned 
low pressure. Winds will freshen off the coast of Baja California
Norte tonight into Sunday as high pressure west of the area 
slightly strengthens. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds 
are expected across the Gulf of California on Sunday with seas 
generally under 4 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue 
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft 
through Monday. Cross equatorial long period southerly swell are
expected to reach the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands Monday night into Tuesday, building seas up to 9 ft late
on Tuesday, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pres located north 
of area near 34N133W to 26N136W. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds are on the west side of the low north of the area. East of
the trough, a 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 26N128W, 
and extends a ridge across the waters north of the convergence 
zone, producing mainly light and variable winds N of 20N W of 
120W, and gentle to moderate winds between the convergence zone 
and 20N. Altimeter passes continue to indicate seas of 8 to 11 
ft, in northerly swell, affecting the waters N of 20N W of 120W. 
Seas will gradually subside from east to west on Sunday. The low 
pressure located north of area and associated trough will persist
on Sunday. The low will open up into a trough on Monday while 
weakening. As a result, the ridge will build back across the 
region Monday and Tuesday.

$$
GR

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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Jun-2017 02:51:17 UTC