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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050904
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 23.0N 114.8W AT 0900 UTC SEP 5 MOVING 
N OR 10 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT GUSTS 45 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS REMOVED TO N OF THE CENTER OF STORM FROM 
24N TO 27N BETWEEN 113W AND 115W. KEVIN CONTINUES A WEAKENING 
TREND AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR...LOWER SST AND A DRIER MORE 
STABLE ENVIRONMENT. KEVIN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW 
LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10N107W IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 107W-112W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
OF THIS LOW AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE THAT THIS 
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 11N100W TO 13N117W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE STRONG WITHIN 300 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED 
BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH 
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY N OF 15N W OF 137W. SEAS 
GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL START TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN NIGHT SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL COVER THE 
AREA N OF 25N W OF 138W. 

GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE 
OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER 
SOUTHERN WATERS GENERALLY S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. THE 
AREAL COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
DGS

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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Sep-2015 09:04:12 UTC