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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                            

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 129.1W 1007 
MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION...WITH VERY 
COLD TOPS...HAS INCREASED OVER AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER IN 
THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT... 
AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N127W. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY 
FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO ATTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTHEN NEAR 16.7N130.9W TONIGHT...AND AS IT REACHES NEAR 
17.0N133.2W EARLY ON WED BEFORE IT WEAKENS BACK TO A DEPRESSION 
BY EARLY WED EVENING. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS 
S TO 10N ALONG 86W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST S OF THE WAVE MAINLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 112W FROM 09N-17N MOVING W NEAR 13 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF WAVE FROM 
10N TO 13N. THIS WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PORTION OF A BROAD 
CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 07N117.5W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 136W FROM 10N-17N MOVING W 15-20 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 11N-15N. 

BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 08.5N116.5W 1008 MB WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...AND ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL 
WAVE...MOVING W 15-20 KT. BANDS AND LINES OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS 
CIRCULATION...WITHIN 270 NM ACROSS THE NE AND 300 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES. THIS LOW PRES AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GRADUALLY 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT 
CONTINUES MOVING W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N88W TO 08N99W 
TO 09N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
SEEN FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 78W-81W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
THROUGH BETWEEN 81W-86W...WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 
86W-90W...WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-102W AND 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W-111W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 
44N136W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 32N132W TO NEAR 23N119W. 
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 119W. THE PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TYPICAL TROUGH SEEN ALONG BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS HELPING TO INDUCE NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITHIN 
ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RESULTANT 
SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO LET UP JUST ENOUGH 
BY WED AFTERNOON TO ALLOW THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
WITH SEAS LOWERING TO AROUND 5-6 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
IN THE TROPICAL REGION IS ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE 
WINDS TO EXIST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 13N-19N 
W OF 133W. THESE WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER WINDS ON THE 
PERIPHERY OF THE DEPRESSION AS IT TRACKS WNW WHILE STRENGTHENING 
TO A TROPICAL STORM. PRESENT SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE ARE EXPECTED 
TO BUILD TO HIGHER RANGES AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF CURRENT 
TROPICAL SYSTEM.

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN 
CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ADDED INGREDIENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
HAS HELPED TO SURGE THESE WINDS OUT TO THE PACIFIC WATERS NEAR 
88W FROM 10N-11 INCLUDING THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 
15-20 BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN MATERIALIZE AGAIN LATE 
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MIXED 
NE AND SWELLS WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 9 FT AT THAT TIME FROM 08N-
11N BETWEEN 89W-93W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 
11N86W TO 10N89W. THIS SWELL AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK 
BY EARLY ON THU.

$$ 
AGUIRRE

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jul-2015 16:05:42 UTC