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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A 
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 
12N94W TO DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A RECENT 25/0316 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER 
THE REGION INDICATED SEVERAL 30 KT WIND RETRIEVALS. GIVEN A 
SLIGHTLY LOW BIAS TO THE INSTRUMENT...A SOLID 35 NM WIDE SWATH 
OF 30 TO 35 KT N TO NE WINDS IS RESULTING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC STRETCHING TO NEAR 14N95W. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON DURING WHICH PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW WILL TAPER 
OFF. BY EARLY SUN...A REPEAT OCCURRENCE FOR GALE FORCE N TO NE 
WINDS IS FORECAST...LASTING UNTIL SUN AFTERNOON. THE ASCAT PASS 
ALSO INDICATED THE BROAD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 12N94W ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND JUST EAST OF THE PLUME OF GAP WINDS. DRY AIR 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GAP WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
LOOKING AHEAD HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N89W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 12N94W TO 09N104W TO 12N117W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N138W 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 93W...FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W...AND 
FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 109W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 129W AND 
135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 24N120W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT REACHES FROM 30N127W TO 
23N140W. EARLIER EVENING WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES INDICATED 
WINDS 20 KT OR LESS WITH THE FRONT. FURTHER EXAMINATION OF WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE 
FRONT IS LIFTING TO THE NE...AN INDICATION OF A WEAKENING FRONT. 
THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N124W TO 24N140W BY EARLY SAT ALL 
THE WHILE DISSIPATING GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. 
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN... 
ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF 20 TO 25 KT NW TO N WINDS OFF THE 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. WAVE 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 
14 FT ENTERING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 
TO 11 ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY MON.

FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRES ARE NOTED ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH...BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TRADES TO THE 
NORTH AND MODERATE SW FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FROM THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS NEAR A 1011 MB LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 11N131W.

OTHERWISE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LIES OVER THE EASTERN 
WATERS BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AND EASTERLY 
WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE HERE...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES GENERALLY N OF 03N E OF 95W. CONDITIONS SHOULD 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE HERE DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Oct-2014 09:20:30 UTC