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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE JIMENA...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...IS CENTERED NEAR 
12.5N 125.6W OR ABOUT 1285 MILES W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT 2100 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 
8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. LATEST 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY WELL DEPICTED EYE FEATURE OF 
ABOUT 10 NM IN DIAMETER. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM E AND 30 NM W SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER 
SURROUNDING THE EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN 
BANDS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM NE AND 240 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. THE SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS 
AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OUTWARD TO WITHIN 480 
NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER ON MON AT WHICH TIME 
IT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 15.6N 135.4W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER MON. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 
KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS 

...TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
10N107W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW CLOUD FIELD 
TURNING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE LOW. CLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED FROM 10N-
15N BETWEEN 101W-109W. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL 
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SW FLOW 
INTO IT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 07N78W NW TO 09N84W TO 07N90W TO 10N100W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N107W 1008 MB AND WSW TO 10N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 103W-
107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 78W-81W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-91W AND WITHIN 60 NM O THE TROUGH BETWEEN 
100W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
TROUGH BETWEEN 91W-93W...AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH 
94.5W-98W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N139W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N115W. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 32N127W TO NEAR 27N131W. 
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE TO NEAR 32N134W WITH A PRES OF 
1023 MB. THE HIGH WILL BLOCK THE FORWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD 
FRONT ONCE IT REACHES THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON SUN WHERE IT 
DISSIPATES. THE PRES GRADIENT WELL TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WILL 
TIGHTEN ON MON INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 
180 NM W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS 
BUILDING 6-9 FT IN NW SWELL BRIEFLY ON MON. THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS 
TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 
22N138W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM OF 25N139W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH GULF WITH SEAS 
OF 5-8 FT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT 
DURING SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT. 

$$
AGUIRRE

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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Aug-2015 21:58:50 UTC