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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222156
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Aug 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 21.8N 133.6W at 2100 
UTC, moving NNW at 10 knots. The estimated minimum central 
pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts 
to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the 
storm center. Kenneth will continue to weaken during the next 48 
hours, likely becoming a tropical depression by late Wednesday 
and a remnant low by Thursday. Please refer to the National 
Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers 
WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pres 
near 09N90W to 12N100W to 10N120W to 07N133W. The monsoon trough 
then resumes near 15N133W to beyond 11N140W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 94W and 104W and 
from 06N to 13N between 108W and 131W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California 
through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing 
at times along the trough north of 29N. The pressure gradient 
between this elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging 
W of the area will allow moderate NW winds off Baja California 
through Friday evening, then decreasing to a gentle breeze. Seas 
will remain between 3 and 5 ft during this period. Increasing 
southwesterly winds to the south of the monsoon trough may bring 
6 to 9 ft swell to the offshore waters south of 15N Saturday 
into early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through Friday while moderate to locally fresh WSW winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas. Cross
equatorial swell of 6 to 8 ft will propagate across the area
beginning on Saturday.  

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure west of northern Baja California near 31N125W will 
weaken to a trough this evening, then persist over the waters W 
of northern Baja into Wed. High pressure centered near 35N143W 
will tighten the pressure gradient over NW waters as weakening 
tropical cyclone Kenneth moves northward, and help increase seas 
over a large portion of the area N of 25N and W of 135W through 
Thursday. Moderate to locally fresh NNE flow is forecast 
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Moderate to 
fresh southerly flow is forecast south of the monsoon trough 
through Friday. By Saturday, models are forecasting a slight 
intensification of the southerly flow south of the monsoon 
trough east of 120W. This may build seas to 7 to 8 ft from about 
05N to 15N, east of 120W Saturday through early next week. 

$$
Ramos

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 22-Aug-2017 21:57:00 UTC