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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270911
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

HURRICANE MARIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 122.5W 974 MB AT 0900 
UTC AUG 27 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 
MB. STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE IS QUICKLY WEAKENING 
AND THE EYE HAS FILLED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE IS FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 120W-124W. SEAS 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 36 FT WITHIN 75 NM IN THE NE 
QUADRANT OF MARIE. LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO 
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO W OF 100W SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG 
THE COAST INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE SWELL 
FROM MARIE HAVE ALSO MOVED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL 
WATERS...AND WILL BUILD AND PRODUCE LARGE AND DANGEROUS 
SURF...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND BEACH EROSION LIKELY. MARIE 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WNW AND GRADUALLY VEER NW OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MOVE ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND WEAKEN TO 
A POST TROPICAL LOW. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON 
MARIE...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST OFFICES FOR 
MORE ON IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 126.5W 1005 
MB AT 0600 UTC AUG 27 MOVING NE AT 10 KT. WINDS 20-25 KT. THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS 
NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N-
16N BETWEEN 126W-129W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO TO 11N109W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 
NM OF COAST FROM 6N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
10N-13N BETWEEN 116W-22W

...DISCUSSION...    

THE REMNANT LOW OF LOWELL IS CENTERED NEAR 28N138W WITH A 
PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. LOWELL IS STILL PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND WITH 
SEAS 10 TO 11 FT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH LOWELL. LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING 
WESTWARD AND MOVE W OF THE AREA THU.

MIXED SWELLS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A 
RESULT OF SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM KARINA...LOWELL...AND 
MARIE. MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 100W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY 
MORE TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS 
EXPECTED.

$$
DGS


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 09:11:24 UTC