891 
AXPZ20 KNHC 260847
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0710 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 09N76W to 06.5N80W to 06.5N93W
to 07N113W. The ITCZ continues from 07N113W to 05N130W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
02N to 09N between 78W and 89W, from 05N to 11N between 115W and
125W, and from 03.5N to 10N between 130W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from north of the Hawaiian Islands
southeastward to near 15N110W, and continues to dominate the
offshore waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and a surface trough over northern Mexico is 
supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly winds across the Baja 
California waters, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in N-NW swell, except
7 to 8 ft near the Revillagigedo Islands. Winds inside the Gulf
of California has begun to back to the NW, while seas of 2 to 4 
ft remain across the basin. Mainly gentle W to NW winds and seas
at 4 to 5 ft prevail across the remainder of the central and 
southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue across the 
NE Pacific to sustain moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja
offshore waters, becoming locally strong during the afternoon 
and evening hours through Sat night. Westerly gap winds are 
expected to develop inside the Gulf of California today, and 
increase to fresh to strong across the northern and central 
portions Fri evening through early Sat morning. The high pressure
will move east and weaken modestly Sun through the middle of 
next week, leading to weakening winds across the area waters. 
Moderate NW swell will build across the Baja waters today then 
become reinforced over the weekend, with seas building to 8 to 11
ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Sat night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An upper-level trough extending from south of the Tehuantepec 
region northeastward across the NW Caribbean is supporting active
thunderstorms described above, from the offshore waters of Costa
Rico to coastal Panama and northern Colombia. Fresh to strong 
easterly gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted across the 
Papagayo region, extend offshore to 88W. Moderate N winds with 3
to 4 ft seas are present across the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate, long-
period S swell exist off Ecuador and near the Galapagos Island,
with winds generally SW across the remaining outer waters. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly gap winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region through late Fri morning, 
then moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas through Sat 
morning. Moderate to fresh N winds will linger in the Gulf of 
Panama until Sat morning. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate
seas will prevail elsewhere through Mon before new S swell raises
seas across the regional waters Mon night and Tue.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad ridge anchored on a 1032 mb high near 33N146W dominates 
the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Moderate N to NE 
winds with seas at 5 to 6 ft dominate the waters north of 21N 
and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas 
exist from 07N to 21N and W of 110W, with locally strong winds 
and seas 8 to 10 ft west of 134W. Gentle to moderate E to SE 
winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S swell 
prevail near and S of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
S of 21N and west of 120W through Mon, occasionally pulsing to 
strong. This will maintain seas at 6 to 9 ft south of the ridge.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are 
expected north of 20N and east of 125W today through Mon. Little
change is forecast across the remainder of the waters through 
early next week.

$$
Stripling