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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192104
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1906 UTC Sat Aug 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Kenneth is near 15.9N 123.8W at 19/2100 UTC, 
moving W-NW, or 285 degrees at 16 kt, with estimated minimum 
central pressure of 997 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt 
with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous strong convection is currently 
observed within 90 nm southwest and 60 nm northeast semicircles 
of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted elsewhere from 12N to 18N between 121W and 126W. Kenneth is
forecast to reach hurricane intensity by Sun morning. Refer to 
National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS 
headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional 
information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W north of 09N, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
was noted within 60 nm either side of the axis from 13N to 15N. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N92W to 08N111W to
09N115W, where it loses identity. It resumes from 13N127W to 
11N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 88W
and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 101W
and 108W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120 nm 
south of the monsoon trough west of 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low level trough will meander across the Baja California 
Peninsula and Gulf of California through the middle of next week 
with a surface low developing intermittently along the trough 
over the far northern Gulf of California waters. A surface ridge 
extends across the western waters. This synoptic setup will 
result in a moderate NW breeze through the middle of next week 
across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, except 
becoming a fresh NW breeze each evening within about 90 nm of the
Pacific Coast of Baja California, with 3 to 5 ft seas forecast 
throughout.

Gulf of California...mainly light to gentle southerly flow will 
persist across the Gulf of California through early next week, 
except a moderate to locally fresh breeze will surround the low 
pressure center that will develop intermittently over the 
Gulf waters N of 29.5N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh N drainage winds are forecast tonight 
and then a brief strong surge is expected late Sun night with 
seas building briefly to 8 ft around sunrise on Mon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: moderate nocturnal drainage forecast through 
early next week.

Otherwise, light and variable to gentle NE to E flow expected N 
of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon 
trough axis with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1030 mb extends a ridge southeast to near 
24N115W. Outside the influence of Tropical Storm Kenneth, 
moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast N of the 
monsoon trough and W of 120W. 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Aug-2017 21:04:54 UTC