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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231003
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
728 UTC Mon Jan 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

High pressure building in behind a vigorous cold front that 
exiting the eastern Gulf of Mexico is tightening the pressure 
gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This will cause winds to 
increase to gale force by 1200 UTC. The high will slide quickly 
eastward, and winds will quickly diminish below gale force later 
this afternoon around 2100 UTC. Please see the latest East 
Pacific high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 
KNHC for further details.

Scatterometer data from 0330Z shows gales to the west of the 
front north of 29N between 129W and 137W. Have upgraded the
forecast for this area accordingly. Altimeter data shows large 
NW swell continuing to spreading across the waters with seas 
greater than 12 ft north of 15N. Seas as high as 24 ft are 
present near 30N. Large long period swell will continue to sweep 
southeastward with 8 ft seas reaching the equator this afternoon.
Global models agree that the gale force winds over the northern 
waters that are associated with the cold front will abate during 
the next 12 hours as attendant low pressure to the west of the 
Oregon coast weakens.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 03N91W to 01N99W to 05N123W to 04N131W to 
06N140W. No significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

...A series of strong cold fronts has generated a large area
of unusually large swell. These swell will continue to affect 
most of the forecast area through Wednesday...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh west to southwest winds are observed as a cold
front enters Baja California Norte. Large long period NW swell 
of 12 to 20 ft generated by gales behind the front will sweep 
southeastward into the forecast zones. NW winds north of 27N will
become fresh to strong today, then subside. The pressure 
gradient has tightened off the Jalisco Mexico coast as the front 
approaches. This will briefly support fresh to strong winds today
within 120 nm of the coast. Ridging behind the front will allow 
fresh to locally strong north winds to spread into the southern 
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes today. Strong winds 
sustaining the swell event will diminish by Tuesday as the high 
weakens, with seas decreasing below 12 ft in the offshore Mexico 
waters Wednesday night. However, seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist 
west of 100W through the end of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region 
through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 ft 
until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to arriving 
NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Gales behind the cold front entering Baja California are 
affecting the northern waters. See the special features section 
for additional details. Forecast models remain in general 
agreement in developing an area of low pressure over the western 
waters near 12N134W on Thursday and Thursday night, but are 
trending smaller with respect to the size of the system. 
Nevertheless, a large area of fresh to strong winds will be 
possible in the vicinity of the low from 12N to 26N W of 120W by 
Friday morning.

$$
cam

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Jan-2017 10:03:39 UTC