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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301521
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1433 UTC Thu Mar 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 06N102W to 05N106W to 05N110W to 03N116W to
beyond 02N120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is present from 02N to 04N between 114W and 115W A surface 
trough reaches from 07N86W to 05N94W to 07N100W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 06N 
between 89W and 91W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends SE from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 
33N139W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh NW breezes
to the W of Baja California will become fresh to strong north of
27N tonight through Sunday night as a weak cold front off the 
coast of southern California pushes SE into the area. Seas in
zone PMZ011 will peak at 10 to 14 ft on Friday, then subside to
around 8 ft on Sunday before another round of NW swell cause seas
in zone PMZ011 to rebuild to between 10 and 12 ft on Monday. 
Winds will diminish over the Baja California Norte coastal zones 
from E to W Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure builds 
over the area. Seas off Baja California Sur will remain between 7
and 9 ft off Baja California Norte through the middle of next
week.

The cold front will support a brief period of strong winds over 
the Gulf of California N of 29.5N late tonight through Friday. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW winds will persist across the 
Gulf of California through the forecast period.

Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the rest of
the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gap wind events are not expected to reach minimum forecast 
thresholds the next several days over the Central American 
coastal and offshore waters. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft 
seas are expected to prevail over the forecast waters during the 
next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong 1031 mb high pres centered near 33N139W dominates the 
forecast waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the 
high and lower pressure near the equator is generating fresh 
trade winds from roughly 06N to 20N west of 125W. Seas in this 
area range between 8 and 11 ft as long period NW swell mix with 
shorter period NE wind waves. The areal coverage of the trades 
will diminish through Friday as the high moves west and weakens 
slightly in response to a passing cold front. Marine conditions 
over the forecast region will change little during the next few 
days under the influence of this broad ridge. Large NW swell 
associated with a stalling cold front NW of the area will reach 
the NW part of the forecast area Saturday night and the NE part 
of the forecast area on Monday. Seas in these areas will build to
between 10 and 13 ft in long period NW swell. Long period SW 
swell from the Southern Hemisphere will cause seas from the 
Equator and 03.4S between 110W and 120W to build to nearly 8 ft 
Friday morning through Saturday morning.

$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Mar-2017 15:22:13 UTC