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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA 
RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE 
THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W BETWEEN 03-06N TO AN 
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N127W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AND 
CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO 
03N88W. 

A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 05N127W
TO 12N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N117W TO 09N129W. 

...DISCUSSION... 
 ZCZC  280154
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM 
32N125W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 03N132W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE W 
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 07N106W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE 
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL 
TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 600 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
10N130W TO 20N110W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS 
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY 
FANNING OUT OVER FLORIDA TO THE S OF 30N WHERE IT IS FEEDING 
INTO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL 
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE  FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE LINE 
FROM 04N77W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR 
DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 14N97W. A COLD FRONT  
WILL SWING INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NE OF THE 
RIDGE TONIGHT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20-
25 KT WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S 
INTO THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT... 
AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S 
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A 
SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN 
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W ON TUE.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO  
THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT ON SUN AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH 
MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT 
NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY 
INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE 
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO 
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND 
MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL 
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. 

$$ 
NELSON


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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Feb-2015 21:56:33 UTC