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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Aug 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Kenneth is near 17.4N 130.0W at 0900 UTC, moving WNW 
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Maximum 
sustained winds are 115 kt gusts to 140 kt. Numerous moderate to 
strong convection is within 100 nm of the center. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N 
to 19N between 127W and 132W. Kenneth is a major hurricane near 
peak intensity. It is expected weaken only slightly during the 
next 24 hours, then weaken more rapidly afterwards as it moves 
over cooler water and encounters greater vertical shear. Refer 
to National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS 
headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W north of 10N, moving 
west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted within 90 nm west and 30 nm east of the wave axis. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends westward from 09N84W to 10N111W to 
07N122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 08N to 10N between 119W and 122W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low level trough will meander across the Baja California 
Peninsula and Gulf of California through the end of the week 
with a weak surface low developing at times along the trough 
axis north of 29N. A surface ridge extending across the western 
waters will weaken later today as a low currently near 35N123W 
drifts south, with a trough expected to develop along 125W by 
tonight. Moderate NW winds will prevail through the end of the 
week west of the Baja California Peninsula, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds funneling 
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue this morning, with 
seas to 8 ft. Fresh N drainage winds are forecast each night 
through early Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through Tue, while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected S of 
the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centered near 38N139W extends a ridge southeast to 
near 23N120W. N swell generated by strong northerly winds west 
of a low drifting south off the California coast will build seas 
to 8-9 ft north of 28N between 125W-136W Tue morning. Moderate 
to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough and W of 120W. 

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Monday, 21-Aug-2017 09:16:41 UTC