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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141506
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1505 UTC Thu Dec 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure continues to 
weaken north of the area, and winds will fall below advisory 
criteria by this afternoon. Another brief gale force gap wind 
event is expected in the gulf north of 15N late Friday night 
through Sat morning. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 11N123W, then resumes W of a
surface trough near 10N127W to beyond 10N140W. The surface trough
extends from 17N123W to 10N126W. Scattered moderate convection is
form 08N to 12N between 112W and 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Winds are expected to strengthen to 25 kt 
over the northern Gulf of California tonight through early Sat. 
A cold front moving into the area will induce fresh southerly 
winds in the northern Gulf Sat through Sun. 

A batch of NW swell will propagate across the northern waters
beginning on Friday and persisting into Saturday night. The
aforementioned cold front will push southward into Baja 
California Norte Sat and Sun, with strong NW winds and
reinforcing large seas developing west of the front, mainly 
north of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere in 
the offshore waters of Mexico, with seas in the 4-6 ft range.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through 
early Fri, then strengthen again Sat night with seas reaching
near 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds will funnel into the Gulf 
of Panama today and Fri. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 
3-5 ft will prevail elsewhere over the area the next several 
days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A decaying set of NW swell supports seas of 8 ft as far east as 
133W north of 20N. A fresh set of NW swell of 9 to 14 ft is 
beginning affect the NW waters NW of a line from 30N133W to 
15N140W. High pressure is centered north of the area with a ridge
axis that extends SE to near 22N115W. Fresh NE winds are 
occurring around the southern periphery of the ridge S of 20N and
north of the ITCZ axis. Moderate to fresh SE winds are south of 
the ITCZ axis. The combination of these winds north and south of 
the ITCZ and the decaying NW swell supports seas of 8 to 10 ft 
across the majority of the area S of 20N between 120W and 140W. A
surface trough extending from 20N114W to 14N119W supports widely
scattered moderate convection from 13N to 21N between 109W and
123W. A surface trough will develop W of 140W tonight supporting
fresh to strong easterly winds N of 15N and W of 130W Fri morning
through Sat night. The fresh set of NW swell entering the area 
will spread eastward, supporting seas greater than 8 ft across 
most of the waters from the equator to 30N and E of 115W to 140W 
by late Sat. This swell will begin to decay below 8 ft later on 
Sunday. Meanwhile, strong winds NW of a cold front crossing the 
NE waters offshore Baja California will support seas of 8 to 14 
ft N of 26N and E of 126W late Saturday through early Monday. 

$$
Latto

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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Dec-2017 15:06:54 UTC