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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202149
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2108 UTC Mon Feb 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure will build over
eastern Mexico behind a low pressure moving east across the 
western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The pressure
gradient generated between these features will help to produce 
the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This event will be 
brief as winds peak near minimal gale-force on Tuesday night 
through early Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish below gale 
force on Wednesday as the high pressure ridge shifts quickly 
eastward across the Gulf of Mexico.

Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ extends south of the Equator with scattered showers. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force
gap wind event. 

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 29N119W. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail over the offshore waters along the coast 
of Baja California while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Large NW swell continue to push SE along the entire length of 
the Baja Peninsula and the Mexican coast to near Manzanillo. This
swell will subside as it continues moving SE. Seas of 8-11 ft are
expected across this area. Seas of 4-6 ft are found over the 
remainder of the offshore Pacific waters. Seas are generally 1-2 
ft in the Gulf of California. Seas will continue to subside off 
the coast of the Baja California, falling below 8 ft by early 
Tuesday morning. A cold front will weaken and dissipate W of Baja
but a fresh round of NW swell associated with the front will 
propagate into the area and cause seas to rebuild above 8 ft off 
the coast of Baja California Norte by Tuesday afternoon. In the 
wake of the front a high pressure will strengthen W of the Baja 
California peninsula during the second half of this week. This 
will strengthen the winds along the Baja coast during this time 
frame.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse from moderate to locally 
fresh during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds 
will then diminish by midweek.

Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse from moderate to fresh
tonight. 

Otherwise, winds will be in light to gentle range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A 1025 mb high remains centered over the northern waters near 
29N119W. A cold front is moving through the NW waters and 
extends from 30N130W to 23N140W. Winds have increased over this 
area. Fresh to strong winds are present N of 28N up to 90 nm E 
of the front. Strong to near-gale winds are occurring N of 28N 
and west of the front. NW swells associated with the front 
continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters. Seas will 
peak near 19 ft over the far NW waters at this time before they 
start to subside. The front will continue to move eastward while
weakening, and is expected to eventually dissipate by late 
Tuesday. Winds associated to the front will diminish as the front
weakens. NW swell will continue to propagate SE. An area of seas
of 8 ft or greater will merge with the area currently SW of Baja
by Tuesday evening, covering most of the forecast area. Seas less
that 8 ft will prevail from late Wednesday through the end of 
the week.

$$

ERA



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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Feb-2017 21:49:44 UTC