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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave north of 07N along 94W is moving westward at 10 
kt with minimal associated convection. Another tropical wave 
from 06N to 16N along 100W is moving westward at 10-15 kt with 
associated convection within 45 nm east of the axis. These waves 
are forecast to move slowly westward during the next 36-48 hours 
and become embedded within a larger area of broad low pressure 
south of Mexico Monday through Tuesday.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon tough extends from low pressure in northern Colombia 
centered near 08N74W to 11N104W to 09N119W. The ITCZ continues 
from 09N119W to 06N140W. Clusters of scattered moderate to 
strong convection are along the coast of Central America 
centered near 08N84W and 12N90W. Minimal convection is noted 
elsewhere along the convergence boundary.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate northwest winds associated with high pressure 
centered west of the area near 30N135W and lower pressure over 
NW Mexico will continue west of Baja California through early 
Wednesday, with seas generally 5 to 6 ft. Light variable winds 
and 1-2 ft seas are expected across the Gulf of California 
through Thursday. Further south, light to gentle winds will 
prevail through Wednesday. Winds east of a pair of tropical 
waves that will move slowly south of the Tehuantepec area will 
be moderate to fresh east to southeasterly. A broad area of low 
pressure may develop southwest of southeastern Mexico and Gulf 
of Tehuantepec region during the middle portion of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The Monsoon Trough will continue to intersect the region from 
west to east the next several days, supporting convection mainly 
north of 03N. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail north of 
the trough axis with 4 to 6 ft seas. South of the trough axis, 
moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected 
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak high will meander over northwest waters near 30N135W the 
next 3 days then shift westward into the Central Pacific. Gentle 
to moderate winds are expected over northern waters with 5-7 ft 
seas. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will prevail in 
southern waters north of the ITCZ, with 6-7 ft seas increasing 
slightly to 7-8 ft Tuesday as northeast trades strengthen to 20 
kt from 07N to 15N west of 130W. Seas are expected to linger up 
to 8 ft west of 130W Wednesday through Thursday night.

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Sunday, 28-May-2017 09:21:07 UTC