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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250236
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0235 UTC Tue Jul 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

The Eastern Pacific region remains very active with three 
tropical cyclones: from east to west, Hurricane Hilary, Tropical 
Storm Irwin and Tropical Storm Greg. So far in July, five named 
storms have developed in the basin. 

Hurricane Hilary is centered near 15.0N 105.7W at 25/0300 UTC, 
moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 
mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 kt with gusts 
to 105 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection are
within 150 nm in the N semicircle and 90 nm in the S semicircle. 
A cluster of moderate convection is from 08N to 18N between 100W 
and 104W. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 24 
hours, and Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane on 
Tuesday as it continues on a WNW track about 200 to 250 nm west 
of the Mexican coast for the next couple of days. See the latest 
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4 WTPZ24 
for more details.

Tropical Storm Irwin is centered near 15.2N 118.2W at 25/0300 
UTC, moving WNW at 3 kt with a minimum central pressure of 993 
mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 kt with gusts 
to 75 kt. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are within 
120 nm in the N semicircle and 90 nm in the S semicircle. 
Scattered moderate convection was noted elsewhere from 13N to 
18N between 116W and 120W. Irwin will remain in relatively close
proximity to Hilary the next several days. Gradual strengthening
is expected during the next 48 hours, and Irwin is forecast to 
become a minimal hurricane later tonight or Tue. See the latest 
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5 WTPZ25 
for more details.

Tropical Storm Greg is centered near 14.8N 134.9W AT 25/0300 
UTC, moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 
1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds remain 40 kt with gusts to 50 
kt. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are within 120 nm 
in the N and 60 nm in the S semicircles of the center. Greg is 
expected to remain a minimal tropical storm through the next 24 
hours or so, before weakening ensues. Greg could become a 
tropical depression by Wed, and a remnant low by Thu. See the 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2 
WTPZ22 for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just to the W of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
along 98W north of 08N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No deep
convection is currently noted. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough is analyzed E of the tropical cyclone 
activity from 09N79W to 09N90W to 12N99W. The ITCZ extends from 
12N136W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection was 
from 05N to 11N east of 97W and within 90 nm of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja California peninsula 
are expected to continue through mid-week, as high pressure 
remains centered N of the area. Seas will remain 4 to 7 ft in a 
mix of long period north and southwesterly swell through
Wednesday. Gentle southerly flow will generally prevail in the 
Gulf of California, except for moderate southerly flow over the 
northern Gulf. Large swell from Hilary may reach the waters west
of Baja California Thursday and Friday.

Nocturnal fresh northerly winds are forecast over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Tuesday through Thursday nights. Hilary is expected 
to impact the offshore waters beyond 200 nm off the coasts of 
Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Tue, then pass 
south of the Revillagigedo Islands Wed as a major hurricane.
Seas of at least 8 ft, associated with Hilary are forecast to 
reach the waters between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes on 
Wednesday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Across the Gulf of Papagayo, expect fresh winds each night with 
the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow through the week, 
occasionally building max seas to near 8 ft in a mix of east wind
waves and long period southwest swell.

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected across the forecast
zones the next several days. Long period cross-equatorial SW 
swell creating 5-7 ft seas will continue to propagate into the 
forecast waters through mid week. Another set of cross-equatorial
long period SW swell of 6 to 9 ft will reach the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Wednesday, and the coast 
of Central America on Thursday. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure is located north of area with a ridge axis that 
extends across the forecast waters north of 20N. The pressure 
gradient between this system and an active zone of tropical 
cyclones between 12N and 20N will maintain fresh N to NE winds W 
of 125W through mid-week. Seas associated with T.S. Greg are 
already propagating across the waters N of 20N W of 130W. By 
Thursday night, cross equatorial southwesterly swell of 8 to 9 
ft will spread over the waters south of 10N and east of 110W, 
persisting into next weekend. 

$$
Latto

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 25-Jul-2017 02:36:32 UTC