000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160920
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
701 UTC Wed Aug 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed from 09N100W to 18N99W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N 
between 97W and 102W. The wave is moving W at around 10 kt and 
coincides with a well defined 700 mb trough. TPW satellite 
imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of deep layer 
moisture.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 09N76W to 10N85W to 
10N91W to 12N100W to low pres 1010 mb near 11N107W to low pres
1010 mb near 16N115W to 12N134W to 13N140W. Numerous moderate 
and scattered strong convection is found from 03N to 08N between
77W and 80W and from 07N to 09N between 94W and 97W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 14N 
between 102W and 108W, and within 240 nm S of the monsoon trough
axis west of 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California
and produce mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas 
in the 4-6 ft range through Sunday evening. A surface trough 
will meander across the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of 
California through Sun night, with a surface low developing 
intermittently over the northern Gulf of California.

Gulf of California...gentle to locally moderate southerly flow 
will persist across the Gulf of California through the upcoming 
weekend, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds 
that will be generated by low pressure over the waters N of 30N.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: fresh to strong northerly winds will be
aided by nocturnal drainage flow during the overnight and early 
morning hours Thursday night through Sunday night. Seas are 
forecast to build to between 6 and 8 ft in these winds. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong offshore winds are expected through
Fri and again on Sun across the Gulf of Papagayo.

Gentle NE to E winds are expected N of the monsoon trough, while
moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough axis
through Monday with 3 to 6 ft seas continuing throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad area of low pressure is located near 16N115W or around
500 miles SSW of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula. Latest scatterometry shows a small area of fresh to
strong winds on the north side of this system. This area of winds
and seas is expected to attend the low as it tracks toward the
WNW during the next several days.

The remnant low of former tropical cyclone Jova is analyzed near
19N130W. Latest satellite-derived wind data and altimetry show 
winds around 20 kt and 8 ft seas in the N semicircle of the low. 
This system is forecast to move toward the SW and weaken into a 
trough by this weekend. Winds should diminish to 20 kt or less 
and seas subside to less than 8 ft during the next 24 hours.

The subtropical ridge extends from 32N131W to near 22N110W. 
Except as previously mentioned in the tropical waves and tropical
lows paragraph, moderate anticyclonic flow is forecast between 
the monsoon trough and ridge to the W of 120W. 

Long period SW swell, in the form of 6 to 8 ft seas, is observed
S of a line from 03.4S100W to 02N102W to 06N128W to 00N133W. 
These seas will subside to less than 8 ft by midday on Thu. 

$$
CAM