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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282141
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS CENTERED NEAR 26.1N 130.4W AT 2100 UTC 
AUG 28...OR 825 NM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 310 
DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB. THE BROAD LOW 
LEVEL WIND FIELD OF MARIE IS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE SE 
QUADRANT. THE WEAKENING TREND OF MARIE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS IT MOVES TO THE NW...AND IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT. A CONTINUED NW MOTION AND GRADUAL  
SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 
MARIE IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA WATERS LATE SAT MORNING. SEE 
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS...AND THE LOCAL SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION ON 
IMPACTS FROM SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE...INCLUDING THE 
CONTINUED THREATS OF LIFE THREATENING SURF...VERY STRONG RIP 
CURRENTS...BEACH EROSION...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 10N86W TO 12N96W TO 
11N114W...THEN RESUMES FROM 16N125W TO BEYOND 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 88W...AND FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 91W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM S TO 
SE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 123W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...    

W OF 110W...FADING REMNANT SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA AND LOWELL 
HAVE MIXED WITH THOSE GENERATED BY MARIE...AND DOMINATE THESE 
AREA WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER SHIFTING TO 
THE NW WITH TIME. 

1024 MB HIGH PRES IS WELL NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N134W 
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 26N117W. PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WILL 
DEVELOP E OF THE PENINSULA ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS 
EVENING WHICH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW-NW WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE PENINSULA N OF 24N. 
THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT NW AND DIMINISH BY 48 HOURS WHEN THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

MEANWHILE...THE WATERS E OF 110W WILL BE COMPARATIVELY MORE 
TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 21:41:42 UTC