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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250337
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Feb 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

There is no ITCZ currently over the forecast waters north of the 
equator. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure continues this evening from a 1026 mb 
high center offshore of southern California extending SE to near 
13N109W. This ridge has weakened very slightly throughout the 
day, producing a mild decrease in the prevailing NW to N winds 
across the Baja California waters. Winds remain around 20 kt 
across the waters N of Punta Eugenia this evening, and have 
diminished to 15-20 kt across the waters of Baja California Sur. 
Afternoon and evening altimeter data across the region suggest 
seas are subsiding very slowly, and continue at 7-10 ft in mixed 
NW to N swell as far south as 17N. Inside the Gulf of 
California, NWly winds have increased to around 20 kt across the 
southern half of the gulf, with areas along the coasts and near 
points are likely seeing 20-25 kt. The high pressure center will 
shift southward through Saturday and maintain fresh to strong 
winds inside the Gulf of California south of the Tiburon Basin, 
where seas will build 5-7 ft by Saturday afternoon, and possibly 
to 8 ft near the entrance to the gulf where seas will mix with 
outside NW swell. Meanwhile, winds will slowly diminish further 
off the Baja California peninsula through Saturday, while seas 
subside below 8 ft. Weak high pressure will remain over the area 
into early next week, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and 
slight seas across these waters. Looking ahead, a cold front 
will move into the region Monday night and Tuesday, allowing a 
slight increase in winds.

High pressure building over the northern Gulf of Mexico Saturday
will allow a brief pulse of fresh to strong gap winds into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle mainly onshore winds will prevail through 
Saturday. Winds will freshen and shift offshore along the 
Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama Saturday night through Sunday
night as fresh easterly trade winds return to the western 
Caribbean. The Papagayo gap winds may become strong Monday night
as trade winds increase across the southwest Caribbean.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Seas continue to slowly subside across the outer waters as 
northwest swell decays below 8 ft across the region. Moderate NE 
to E winds cover the trade wind belt south of the high pressure 
ridge. Southerly winds have increased this evening across the 
northwest corner of the discussion area, ahead of a cold front 
expected to move east of 140W tonight. Another pulse of 
northwest swell reaching 8 to 10 ft will accompany the front, 
although wave guidance indicates this northwest swell above 8 ft 
will remain north of 25N and west of 135W through Sunday as the 
swell subsides. Looking ahead, a reinforcing frontal boundary 
will move west of 140W early next week, bringing another push of 
northwest swell into the northwest portions of the discussion 
area. Building high pressure north of the area behind this 
boundary will allow fresh trade winds deeper into the tropics 
from 05N to 10N west of 125W with seas reaching 8 ft in a mix of 
local trade wind related wave and longer period northwest swell.

$$
Stripling


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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Feb-2017 03:37:45 UTC