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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171008
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.8W 1000 MB AT 
0900 UTC SEP 17...OR ABOUT 200 MILES...325 KM S OF ZIHUATENEJO 
MEXICO...MOVING NW OR 315 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 
NM NE AND 180 NM SE QUADRANTS AND 30 NM ACROSS W SEMICIRCLE... 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM NW AND 
360 NM SW QUADRANTS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW 
TRACK PARALLEL TO THE SW COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS 
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE TONIGHT. CONVECTION 
OCCURRING TO THE NE OF POLO WITH SCRAPE ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES 
OF MEXICO BETWEEN GUERRERO AND JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY...AND 
MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS ALREADY AFFECTED BY NORBERT AND 
ODILE. SEE THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC AND FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 113.5W 995 MB AT 
0900 UTC SEP 17...ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM S OF PUERTO PENASCO 
MEXICO...MOVING NNE OR 015 DEG AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 995 MB. ODILE IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N-NE AND MOVE INLAND THEN SLOW DOWN TONIGHT 
INTO WED. RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES 
INLAND. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE...AND SPREADS INLAND 
ACROSS THE STATE OF SONORA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES 
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TO 18 INCHES ACROSS 
SONORA DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN 
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. HIGH AND CONFUSED SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS N 
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE 
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N76W TO 07.5N81W TO 10N90W 
WHERE IT HAS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N104.5W TO 
11N124W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 12.5N140W 1011 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N AND 150 NM S OF TROUGH E OF 
90W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 106W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N128W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 32N124W...AND ALSO SW TO BEYOND 21N140W. 
THE RIDGE IS MAINTAINING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE 
TROPICS W OF 120W AND TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N132.5W TO 27N140W. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 20-25 KT IS TO THE N OF 29N 
WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT. NW SWELL IS 
MAINTAINING SEAS OF 8-9 FT ELSEWHERE W OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 
25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO TROUGH FROM 30N131W TO 24N140W 
LATE WED AND FROM 27N130W TO 24N140W ON THU WITH SEAS EXPECTED 
TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT ON FRI.

LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA YESTERDAY AND HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY FADE 
OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS STILL TO 8 FT OR MORE ACROSS MOST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF 03N AND E OF 110W. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE 
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF POLO 
THROUGH THU AS THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL FADES.

$$ 
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 10:08:16 UTC