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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220922
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Aug 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Hurricane Kenneth is centered near 20.0N 132.5W at 0900 UTC, 
moving NW at 9 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 
978 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. 
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 90 nm of 
the center. Kenneth is forecast to weaken steadily through Thu. 
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory 
under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas 
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more 
information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 98W from 18N southward to 10N, moving 
westward at 15 to 20 knots. No significant convection is 
associated with this wave.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends westward from 08N78W to 11N100W to 
10N119W to 07N126W. Widely scattered moderate convection is 
within 120 nm of the axis between 112W and 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will prevail across the Gulf of California 
through the end of the week with a weak surface low developing 
at times along the trough north of 29N. The pressure gradient 
between this elongated area of low pressure and surface ridging 
W of the area will allow moderate NW winds off Baja California 
through early Friday, then decreasing to a gentle breeze. Seas 
will remain between 3 and 5 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly winds will funnel into the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Wed with seas to 7-8 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough 
through Friday while moderate to locally fresh WSW winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure west of northern Baja California near 31N126W will 
weaken to a trough later today, then persist over the waters W 
of northern Baja into Thu. High pressure centered near 35N142W 
will tighten the pressure gradient over NW waters as weakening 
tropical cyclone Kenneth moves northward, and help increase seas 
over a large portion of the area N of 25N and W of 135W. N swell 
generated by strong northerly winds N of the area has increased 
seas to 8-9 ft north of 28N between 127W and 134W. Conditions 
will merge with swell generated by Kenneth. Moderate to locally 
fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon 
trough and W of 120W. 

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 22-Aug-2017 09:23:12 UTC