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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A LONG 
DURATION MINIMAL GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. NE 
SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS GALE EVENT...AS 
WELL AS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS ARE 
COMBINING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE 
SWELLS HAS RESULTED IN A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS FROM 03N-14N 
BETWEEN 93W-108W. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT...WITH WINDS IN THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A SE RETURN FLOW BY SAT MORNING. THE 
GALE WARNING IS SCHEDULED TO COME DOWN AFTER SUNRISE SAT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE 
FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA THAT HAS BROUGHT 
GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOULD 
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH FRI MORNING. AFTERWARD...WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND SHRINK IN 
AREAL COVERAGE SIGNIFICANTLY. SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF 8-10 FT 
SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT SEAS OVER 8 FT 
ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS FROM PAPAGAYO WILL SHRINK EASTWARD THROUGH 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 04N90W TO 03N95W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W 
AND 123W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES FROM 32N120W TO 10N114W. A LARGE AREA 
OF SHOWERS LIES E OF THE TROUGH INTO NW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL 
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRIDAY 
AND CUT OFF A LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ON SAT. A 
STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
U.S. GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ON THE W SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN 
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS IS FORCING A FRESH TO STRONG N-
NW BREEZE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WERE 
OBSERVED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH HERE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE 
GULF OF PANAMA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRI. 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SLACKEN 
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 
WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT FRI AFTERNOON.

THE 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH NEAR 36N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 19N140W. RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW FRESH TO 
STRONG NE TRADE WINDS LIE OVER THE WATERS PRIMARILY W OF 130W 
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE ITCZ AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT 
EVENING. 

$$ 
SCHAUER


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Page last modified: Friday, 30-Jan-2015 03:37:38 UTC