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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240953
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Aug 24 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 14N107W, moving west-
northwest about 20 knots. The low pressure center is along a
tropical wave that is along 106W/107W. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong within 210 nm of the center in the north
quadrant. Scattered strong from 21N to 23N between 104W and 107W.
It is likely that the wind speeds currently may be 20 knots or
less. The wind speeds are forecast to increase to fresh to
strong during the next 24 hours. The sea heights already are
reaching 8 feet in mixed southerly swell, and are forecast to
build to 8 to 11 feet by 48 hours. There is a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 99W/100W from 20N southward, moving
westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate within a 30 nm radius of 13N100W. Scattered strong
is inland in Mexico from 17N to 19N between 100W and 101W.
This tropical wave is forecast to merge with the 106W/107W
tropical wave and low pressure center during next few days.

A tropical wave is along 126W/127W from 15N southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A description of the nearby convective
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/itcz section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is along 06N77W to 10N85W to 08N94W, to a
1007 mb low pressure center that is near 14N107w. The monsoon
trough continues from the 1007 mb low pressure center, to a
second 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 11N121W. to
10N125W and 11N128W. The ITCZ is along 11N from 128W westward
beyond 140W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between
77W and 78W, within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough
between 121W and 125W, and within 90 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough between 125W and 128W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough between 113W and 116W, and elsewhere within 120 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough between 113W and 115W, within 120 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough between 120W and 125W, and
within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 137W and 139W.
Isolated moderate within 180 nm to the north and to the south of
the monsoon trough between 87W and 100W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is along 20N110W to 27N117W beyond 30N123W.
This ridge will change little during the upcoming weekend, with
mainly light to moderate northerly flow prevailing outside of
the Gulf of California.

Expect mainly light to moderate southerly flow In the Gulf of
California, except for occasionally fresh wind flow in the
northern Gulf where the pressure gradient will be slightly
tighter.

The Gulf of Tehuantepec: northerly winds will continue to pulse
to fresh to near gale force during the next few days, due to a
locally tight pressure gradient combined with nocturnal drainage
flow, with the strongest winds expected during the late night
into the early morning hours. Seas will build to up to 8 to 10
ft during the strongest winds. The gradient will weaken slightly
this weekend allowing for northerly winds to pulse to only fresh
levels.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The Gulf of Papagayo: the latest model guidance indicates
easterly offshore winds pulsing to fresh levels during the
overnight and early morning hours of this morning, which will
build seas to 7 ft.

Expect light to moderate winds elsewhere. Combined seas will be
4 to 6 ft through the upcoming weekend.

ELSEWHERE...

The center of the post-tropical remnant low of Kay at 24/0600
UTC is a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 24N122W. No
deep convective precipitation is present with the low pressure
center. The remnant low will continue to move northwestward, and
then more west-northwestward, before dissipating later today. A
small area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft can be
found within 150 nm in the northwest semicircle. These
conditions will diminish and subside later today as the low
pressure center dissipates.

A 1007 mb low pressure center is embedded in the monsoon trough,
near 11N121W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between
121W and 125W, and within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough between 125W and 128W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 120 nm to the south of the monsoon trough
between 120W and 125W, and within 120 nm to the south of the
ITCZ between 137W and 139W. A large area of fresh southwesterly
monsoonal flow is supporting seas of 8 to 9 ft within 420 nm in
the southeast semicircle of the low center. Model guidance
mainly keeps the low center weak if not even slightly weaker
during the next couple of days, then the low may deepen late in
the week into the upcoming weekend.

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2016 09:53:44 UTC