| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
0405 UTC SUN MAR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N103W 
TO 06N120W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1022 MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 30N128W WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N103W...AND TO THE SW TO NEAR 
22N138W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND ITCZ IS 
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF 20N. A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW CORNER REACHING FROM 30N138W 
TO 28N140W. ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE TO 
FRESH LEVELS WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL 
FROM 30N132W TO 26N140W WHILE DISSIPATING SUN...THEN WILL BECOME 
A REMNANT TROUGH BY LATE SUN NIGHT. NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH 
WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON 
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...THEN WILL DIMINISH BACK TO 
MODERATE TO FRESH LATE MON AS THE TROUGH BECOMES DIFFUSE.

A NEW SET OF NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED 
ABOVE HAS MOVED INTO THE FAR NW WATERS...WITH COMBINED SEAS UP 
TO 14 FT NEAR 30N140W. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 15 FT LATE TONIGHT 
INTO EARLY SUN OVER THE FAR NW WATERS THEN WILL SUBSIDE AS THE 
SWELL PROPAGATES SE. THE LEADING EDGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER IS 
EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TO 04N140W BY 
LATE MON AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

DECAYING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT CONTINUES TO 
AFFECT THE WATERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W...IMPACTING THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. THIS 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND WILL FALL BELOW 8 FT ACROSS 
THIS AREA BY EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. GREAT 
BASIN IS STRENGTHENING. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER FAR NW 
MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS IN THE FAR 
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N AS INDICATED BY EARLIER 
ASCAT AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 
SUN NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THESE WINDS MAY 
MANAGE TO SPILL THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PASSES INTO THE 
SAN SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY.

OTHER PACIFIC GULF AREAS...WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS IN TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA... 
PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING TO 
MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW LATE 
EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE PRIMARILY 3-5 FT.

$$
LEWITSKY