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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
2205 UTC WED JUL 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN END OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 121W/122W...ALONG 11N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 07N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THAT 
IS AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS BECOMING 
BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD 
SUPPORT A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
IS MEDIUM. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W/102W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD WESTWARD 
15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN 
AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS 
MOVING AROUND A 21N112W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 101W 
AND 105W FROM 30/1000 UTC UNTIL 30/1400 UTC. THE PATTERN OF THE 
PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY BECAME STRETCHED OUT...LESS 
CONCENTRATED IN ONE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG NOW COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 104W AND 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER 
NEAR 07N78W...ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 08N81W TO 09N87W...TO 
08N103W...TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE 
121W/122W TROPICAL WAVE...TO A SECOND 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N132W...BEYOND 13N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 
87W...AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 111W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 89W AND 
100W...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 117W...AND FROM 07N TO 
15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF HERNAN IS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 
25N124W. THE SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 
THE LOW CENTER...EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN 20 
KNOTS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 130W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N124W 20N127W. MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVER 
THE AREA THAT IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N125W 22N128W 16N136W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 21N112W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 
100W AND 120W.

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
11N132W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS NEAR 15N140W FOR THE 
30/1605 UTC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA 
JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
FROM 09N TO 12N FROM 81W EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON 
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN TO 
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS OF 
THURSDAY...THE WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE ON 
THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND 
SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN AGAIN BY SUNSET ON THURSDAY...AND RETURN 
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY MORNING SUNRISE.

$$ MT