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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051548
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI FEB 05 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STORM FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH SEAS TO 22 FT AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FURTHER
DIMINISH TO A MAX OF 40 KT ON SAT MORNING. STRENGTHENING POST
FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO
MINIMAL STORM FORCE AGAIN LATE SAT...AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT
NIGHT. A STRONG GALE AT SUNRISE SUN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGHOUT SUN TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON MON. GUIDANCE
THEN SUGGESTS STORM CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON NIGHT. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS...
WITH SEAS TO 10 FT...OBSERVED LAST NIGHT NEAR 28.5N ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RELAX SUPPORTING 20-25
KT NW WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING
WITH 20-25 KT NW PULSES EXPECTED ON SAT. ONLY 20 KT NW FLOW
EXPECTED ON SUN NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...STRONG TO NEAR GALE ENE PULSES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD RELAX SOME TONIGHT SUPPORTING MOSTLY 20-25 KT WINDS ON
SAT. THE GRADIENT WILL THEN TIGHTEN SAT EVENING INCREASING THE
NE FLOW TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE ON SUN...WITH THE
NARROW BAND OF GALE CONDITIONS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG TO NEAR FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 08N92W...RESULTING IN
SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 10N87W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SAT NIGHT N OF 12N BETWEEN 87W AND
91W...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF FONSECA WITH SEAS TO
ABOUT 7 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
COLOMBIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 04N77W TO 01N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS. 

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 06.5N83W
AND EXTENDS W TO 04N91W TO 06N122W...THEN DIPS SW TO BEYOND
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N86W TO 03N104W AND
ALSO WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N113W TO 07N122W
TO 05N130W.  

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
27N120W TO 17N103W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 113-
120W...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
MOSTLY 10-15 KT N-NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED BETWEEN 108-113W...AND 5-
10 KT NE-E WINDS N OF 15N BETWEEN 97-110W...WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED STORM/GALE EVENT ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE OF CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. NW SWELLS...IN THE FORM OF COMBINED 7-11 FT
SEAS...CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 120W AND BAJA...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FROM THE N ON SAT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS
EXPECTED BY SUN NIGHT. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 05N W
OF 106W. PULSES FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 10 FT NEAR 06N81W. 

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05-10N W OF 127W THROUGH
EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS OF 10-13 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS
WAVE AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. LARGE NW LONG PERIOD
SWELL...WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W
OF 106W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TUE...THEN BEGIN TO
BUILD AGAIN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR 30N140W ON
WED EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY STRONG SW FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N W OF 138W ON
TUE NIGHT.

$$
NELSON

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Page last modified: Friday, 05-Feb-2016 15:48:24 UTC