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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
BEGINNING AT 0600 UTC TUE AND ENDING AFTER SUNRISE TUE MORNING. 
THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1702 UTC SHOWED 30 KT N-NW WINDS IN THE 
WESTERN GULF NEAR 28N. THIS IS 5 KT STRONGER THAN THE GFS MODEL 
AT 1800 UTC. THE 1200 UTC GFS RUN PREDICTS GALE CONDITIONS IN 
THE S CENTRAL GULF BY 0600 UTC. THIS SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK BASED 
ON THE ASCAT PASS. DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD ALLOW 
THE WINDS IN THE GULF TO REMAIN AT GALE FORCE THROUGH THE 
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 30 KT BY WED 
AFTERNOON. 

IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE 
TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE 
NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRIEFLY STALL THROUGH MIDDAY TUE. THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN 
MEXICO ON TUE AND WILL SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE U.S. PLAINS STATES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THE 
FRONT THROUGH CHIVELA PASS LATE TUE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL 
FOLLOW THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED 
MORNING AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY 1200 UTC. SEAS 
WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 12 TO 18 FT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
DURING THIS PERIOD. STORM FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST PAST THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MIDDAY WED. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 10N95W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N115W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 
10N117W TO 10N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS 
WITHIN 300 NM N AND W QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N115W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1031 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 36N130W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 16N110W TO NEAR 14N96W. THE 
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO 
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA FROM 09N TO 24N W OF 130W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS 
ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A 
LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N115W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE 
NE THROUGH TUE AND PINCH OFF A WEAKER HIGH NEAR 32N125W BY 
MIDDAY WED...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING THE 
TRADE WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRES HAS 
ALREADY OOZED INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...BUILDING THE 
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY OVER 
PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A STRONG BREEZE 
EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST 
FROM 28.5N TO 30N EARLY TUE. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL 
MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS 
TUE. SE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO A STRONG BREEZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO NW WATERS 
THROUGH WED MORNING AND LIE FROM 30N138W TO 27N140W BY MIDDAY 
WED. 

$$
SCHAUER


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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Nov-2014 21:50:28 UTC