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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042112
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 22.0N 115.2W AT 2100 UTC SEP 4 MOVING 
N OR 360 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTS 55 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE. KEVIN 
HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND HAS STARTED A WEAKENING TREND AS THE 
SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH DIMINISHING SST AND A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. KEVIN 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SATURDAY 
AND FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW SUN. REFER TO THE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 
KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 11N98W TO 10N105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 
83W AND 101W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS GENERATED 
BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST WATERS WITH 
SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY FROM 10N TO 28N W OF 136W. SEAS 
GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THIS AREA 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 42N145W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 28N118W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE 
FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S OF LINE FROM 
02N134W TO 10N127W TO 10N102W TO 03.4S92W. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 
SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. WINDS SURROUNDING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 
10N105W WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TO 25 KT 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Friday, 04-Sep-2015 21:12:23 UTC