000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161607 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 02N to 16N, with axis near 104W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection described in the section below. A tropical wave extends from 03N to 18N with axis near 114W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave extends from 04N to 19N with axis near 133W, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N114W. The ITCZ continues from 10N114W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave along 113W, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 12N between 97W and 106W, and from 06N to 15N and W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh SE winds prevail over the northern portion of the Gulf of California along with 4 ft seas due to the pressure gradient between a 1008 mb low off the NW Mexico coast and a surface ridge over the E Pacific subtropical waters. Moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas to 7 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, locally moderate or weaker winds prevail along with moderate seas in SW swell, except N swell N of Punta Eugenia. For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh SE winds over the northern Gulf of California will prevail through tonight. Pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night as high pressure builds over central Mexico. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds Thu night into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens further, resulting in rough seas to 8 ft. Farther south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through today. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, except for slight seas over the southern half of the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo along with rough seas to 9 ft, reaching as far as 92W. Pulsing moderate to fresh N winds also continue over the Gulf of Panama with moderate seas to 6 ft. Moderate SE to S winds are ongoing between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands with seas to 8 ft in SW swell. Locally moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend as high pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America, building seas to rough at times. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Sun night with rough seas to 8 ft subsiding SW of the Galapagos early Thu morning. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1037 mb well northwest of the discussion waters near 45N146W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate trades are in the belt from 10N to 20N west of 110W, and from 10N to 15N east of 110W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 90W, and moderate east of 90W. Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail across the waters south of 04N. Moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas will continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate through the southern waters promoting rough seas south of 05N, through mid- week, then decaying through the end of the week. A new N swell will arrive and lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek, decaying by the end of the week. $$ Ramos
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 16-Jul-2025 19:40:09 UTC