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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151520
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1520 UTC Sun Jan 15 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to low pressure near 02N80W
1010 mb to 01N83W to 04N90W to 04N105W. The intertropical
convergence zone extends from 04N105W to a surface trough near
07N125W, then continues to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 15N between 110W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gale force gap winds are diminishing this 
morning as high pressure north of the area weakens ahead of low 
pressure moving across northern Mexico. Strong gap will persist 
into the afternoon, then diminish further overnight into Monday 
morning. 8 to 10 ft seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will subside accordingly to below 8 ft by this afternoon. Light 
to gentle breezes will follow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through mid week.

Elsewhere, a cold front that has been moving southward along the
Baja California peninsula and Gulf of California has shifted
south of Los Cabos. The front is weakening, and will stall and
dissipate tomorrow from Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island.
Moderate to fresh winds following the front will diminish through
today. Northwest swell off Baja California Norte has subsided to
below 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft
seas prevail through mid week. 

Looking ahead, a cold front will move eastward across Baja 
California and the Gulf of California by Thursday accompanied by 
strong winds and building seas north of 25N.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fairly strong trade winds over the southwest 
Caribbean along with local drainage effects are allowing fresh to
strong gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo and farther north 
off the coast of Nicaragua near Puerto Sandino. These winds will 
diminish this afternoon, but will repeat tonight and to a lesser 
extent each night thereafter through mid week. Seas are reaching 
8 ft downstream to 90W, but will subside as the winds diminish 
this afternoon, and stay just below 8 ft through mid week.

Elsewhere, there are lingering strong winds off the Azuero
peninsula of Panama, but gap winds in the Gulf of Panama are
diminishing. Persistent low pressure and troughing will continue
to support occasional showers and thunderstorms off Colombia for
the next couple. light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas
persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Upper jet dynamics continue to support a surface trough extending 
from 11N123W to 07N128W, along with related showers and
thunderstorms from 10N to 15N between 110W and 130W. The gradient
between the trough and 1029 mb high pressure centered near
31N138W is allowing fresh to strong trade winds from 10N to 15N
west of the trough to 130W. A large area of moderate to fresh
trades is noted elsewhere between the ITCZ and 20N. The
combination of the seas related to trade winds and a component 
of longer period northwest swell is supporting combined seas of
8 to 12 ft in the area of trade winds. Ship observations and
altimeter data confirm seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 20N and west
of 130W due mainly to the northwest swell. Winds and seas will
diminish slightly through mid week as the ridge weakens a little
and shifts southward to along 25N ahead of a progressive cold
front moving eastward across the eastern Pacific from middle to
the latter parts of the week.

$$
CHRISTENSEN

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Page last modified: Sunday, 15-Jan-2017 15:20:30 UTC