| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
2205 UTC MON FEB 09 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRONG GALE FORCE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WITH SEAS TO 19 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE THU MORNING...THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH TO MINIMAL GALE
CONDITIONS ON THU AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN INCREASING THE FLOW TO STRONG
GALE FORCE ON FRI THROUGH EARLY SUN. THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL THAT WILL PROPAGATE S
MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE
EVENT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
04-10N BETWEEN 90-105W ON WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
REACHING THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 93-110W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED MORNING THEN BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...THEN DEVELOP AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N94W...RESULTING IN SEAS BUILDING
TO ABOUT 15 FT NEAR 09N89W. PATCHES OF STRONG NE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED NIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF
12N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF FONSECA...WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO ONLY 8 FT IN THE LIMITED FETCH. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE THAT AN ITCZ FORMS NEAR 07N85W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 03N97W...THEN TURNS NW TO 06N110W...SW TO
01N125W...THEN W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 07N85W TO 05N104W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W. 

...DISCUSSION...

ELSEWHERE N OF 15N E OF 120W...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM
24N120W TO 21N107W. THE GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING N-NE
WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS BETWEEN 107-
120W...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT WINDS LATER
TONIGHT INTO WED...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 20N W OF 112W ON WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED BETWEEN 97-107W WITH THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED GALE
EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE E OF 97W. FRESH NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 24N ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MODERATE NW FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE GULF ON WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.  

S OF 15N E OF 110W...EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FOR THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MODERATE TO FRESH
N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 04N W
OF 86W. PULSES OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD S
FROM THE GULF OF PANAMA TO ALONG 04N EACH NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 9 FT NEAR
06N81W. 

ELSEWHERE FROM 00-32N E OF 140W...STRONG PULSES OF NE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 06-12N W OF 125W THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT DUE TO THE MIXING NE WINDS WAVE
AND LONG PERIOD S AND N SWELL. NW LONG PERIOD SWELL...WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT...ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
TROPICS W OF 110W. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
WED...THEN BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN THU AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE NW
SWELL PROPAGATES SE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT REACHING NEAR
32N136W TO 26N140W LATE THU. THIS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY
STRONG SW FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 29-32N
W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED NIGHT.

$$
NELSON

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Feb-2016 03:35:07 UTC