Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 211524

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1520 UTC Sat Jan 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


High pressure building over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Monday will force gale force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
beginning by 1200 UTC Monday. The high will slide quickly
eastward, which will allow for winds to diminish below gale force
by 0000 UTC Tuesday. Please see the latest east Pacific high seas
forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for the
latest details. 


The ITCZ extends from 07N96W to 06N115W to 04N130W to beyond 
02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
ITCZ axis between 110W and 117W.


...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of 
unusually large swell will maintain very high seas over much of
the area north of the equator and west of 100W through Tuesday...


A small area of strong southwest winds is focused north of 29N 
in the Gulf of California ahead of a cold front arriving over 
Baja California Norte this morning. The cold front extends from
the NW corner of the Gulf of California to the offshore Pacific
waters near 30N115W to 26N120W and is dissipating to 24N133W. 
Strong northwest winds and seas of 12 to 21 ft are affecting 
waters north of 26N in the wake of the cold frontal passage. The 
large northwesterly swell will continue to propagate to the 
southeast and will be a significant swell and high surf event 
that will continue into the deep tropics the next several days. 
By Sunday morning, seas will build to 20 ft off Baja California 
Norte and Guadeloupe Island. The leading edge of 12 ft seas will
reach Socorro Island by late Sunday morning. Ridging behind the 
front will allow strong northerly winds to spread to the southern
Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes by late Sunday. 
Another cold front will produce a reinforcing round of long 
period NW swell, which will maintain seas in the 12 to 20 foot 
range Monday through Tuesday. The strong winds supporting the 
longevity of the swell event will diminish into Tuesday as the 
high weakens, with seas finally decreasing below 12 ft offshore 
Mexico west of 100W by Wednesday night. However, seas of 8 to 10 
ft will remain offshore Mexico west of 100W through the end of 
the week with additional re-enforcing swell likely. 

East of 100W, high pressure building in behind a strong cold 
front in the Gulf of Mexico will increase the pressure gradient 
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and cause gap winds to increase
to gale force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Monday morning. Please
see the special features section for more details. 


Light to gentle southeast to east winds will generally prevail 
across the region through Tuesday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft
in the forecast waters. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse
over the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama Tuesday night 
through Wednesday night as high pressure passes north of the
Caribbean basin.


The pressure gradient between a cold front crossing Baja
California Norte and another cold front approaching our
northwestern waters supports strong northwesterly winds north 
of 26N east of 123W and strong southwesterly winds north of 27N 
west of 136W. A large northwesterly swell event is spreading 
across the waters with 12 ft seas dominating north of 21N and 
reaching as high as 25 ft along 30N. Seas of 8 ft or greater 
extend north of a line from around 20N111W to 02N140W. The large 
swell will continue to propagate southeastward with 8 ft seas 
nearing the equator Sunday night, and 10 ft seas or greater north
of 10N.

The cold front approaching our northwestern waters will cross the
northern waters later today through Monday. Global models
continue to show gale force winds cutting off just north of 30N 
with gale force winds north of 30N and near gale north of 28N 
west of the cold front tonight through Sunday night. These winds 
will help to re-enforce the northwest swell with seas of 18 to 23
ft west of the front where the near gale winds are occurring. 

Elsewhere east of 100W and west of 92W, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail through Monday.
After Monday, swell from the northwest and from Monday's 
Tehuantepec event to the north will cause seas to increase to 8 
to 10 ft. 


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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Jan-2017 15:24:43 UTC