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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Dec 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure continues to 
weaken north of the area, and winds will fall below advisory 
criteria by this afternoon. Another brief gale force gap wind 
event is expected north of 15N late Friday night through Sat 
morning. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 07N80W to 06N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N95W to 07N110W to 10N121W to 10N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N 
to 15N between 112W and 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Winds are expected to strengthen to 25 kt 
over the northern Gulf of California tonight through early Sat. 
A cold front moving into the area will induce fresh southerly 
winds in the northern Gulf Sat through Sun. 

The cold front will push southward into Baja California Norte 
Sat and Sun, with strong NW winds and large seas developing west 
of the front. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere in 
the offshore waters of Mexico, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through 
early Fri, then strengthen again Sat night. Moderate to fresh N 
winds will funnel into the Gulf of Panama Thu and Fri. Gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft will prevail elsewhere over 
the area the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure north of the area extends a ridge southeast to 
near 20N110W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
maintaining moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and 
west of 115W. The combination of NW swell and wind generated NE 
waves is producing combined seas of 8 to 10 ft across this area. 
A fresh set of NW swell has moved into the NW waters, with seas 
to 13 ft. Seas will gradually subside through Fri and propagate 
southeast across the forecast waters. A cold front moving south 
off Baja California this weekend will produce an area of strong 
winds and 10-15 ft seas in NW swell north of 28N between 117W 
and 128W. 

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Thursday, 14-Dec-2017 09:11:14 UTC