000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260834
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 12N95W to 12N110W to 
06N130W. The ITCZ continues from 06N130W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is evident from 06N to 08N between 90W and 
92W, from 06N to 08N between 110W and 113W, and from 09N to 12N 
between 115W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh winds along
the coast of Baja California Norte, between broad ridging to the
west and lower pressure over central Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft 
with a component of NW swell. Light to gentle winds are noted in 
the Gulf of California, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Elsewhere across 
the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate 
seas prevail, primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure inland Mexico will continue to support moderate to
fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas across the waters W of the
Baja California peninsula, and mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro
through mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW 
swell will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions may persist off 
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to 
agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, seas 
conditions are expected to deteriorate N of Punta Eugenia Wed 
night into Thu as long period NW swell reaches the area. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough along roughly 
10N, with gentle to moderate S to SW south of it. Combined seas 
are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are 
developing along and near the monsoon trough. Medium 
concentration of smoke is observed across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador due to mostly agricultural fires 
onshore.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south 
of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light to 
gentle winds are expected north of it through mid week. Light haze
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters
through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across
most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. This pattern is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of the ITCZ and W of
130W, and gentle to moderate N to NE winds N of the ITCZ/Monsoon
trough between 110W and 130W. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft based
on altimeter data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted S
of the monsoon trough across most of the forecast region. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area while weakening some through
mid-week. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area
through the early part of the week. Looking ahead, a small and 
weak disturbance may develop along the monsoon trough or ITCZ 
between 120W and 125W by mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong
winds and locally rough seas. Tropical cyclone formation is not 
expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Christensen