000
AXNT20 KNHC 211038
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending 
from 19N45W to 09N47W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is embedded 
in abundant moisture as seen on SSMI Imagery. There are distinct 
surface and 700 mb troughs. Isolated convection is within 240 nm 
of the wave axis. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean along 78W, moving W 
at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on 
SSMI Imagery. There is a well defined surface trough, and a 
broad 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
from 14N-20N between 75W-83W.

A tropical wave is in the Gulf of Honduras along 86W, moving W 
at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in abundant moisture as seen on 
SSMI Imagery. There are distinct surface and 700 mb troughs. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-19N between 86W-89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 
08N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
08N20W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-09N 
between 32W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the eastern U.S. extends a surface ridge into 
the NE Gulf of Mexico. Diffluence E of an upper level trough 
over Texas is enhancing scattered showers across the central 
Gulf between 86W-93W. An upper level ridge is over the E Gulf 
with axis along 82W. Strong subsidence is over north and central 
Florida. Expect moderate to occasional fresh E-SE winds over the 
Gulf today as the surface ridge remains in place.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

In addition to the two tropical waves mentioned above, the 
eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa 
Rica and Panama producing isolated convection. A large upper 
level high is centered over the NW Caribbean near 19N81W with 
abundant moisture. Strong subsidence is over the E Caribbean E 
of 72W, including Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. Expect fair 
weather to persist in Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands today.

...HISPANIOLA...

With a tropical wave west of the area, fair weather is expected 
over Hispaniola today. Fresh to strong trades are expected this 
weekend as high pressure builds in N of the region. Scattered 
showers are possible in the afternoon and evening hours. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends over the west-central Atlantic 
from 32N55W to 27N65W, then stationary to 26N75W. Scattered 
showers are within 200 nm NW of the front. Strong high pressure 
is centered over the Azores, and high pressure extends into the 
Atlc to around 68W off the the U.S. coast west of the front. An 
upper level low centered in the central Atlc near 22N42W is 
producing scattered showers within 600 nm E of the center due to 
upper level diffluence.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Mundell