Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 230540

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1240 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

A 1012 mb low is centered near 26N87W with a cold front extending
SW from the low to southern Mexico near 18N92W. Near gale to gale
force N-NW winds are occurring across the western Gulf waters S of
20N W of 95W and are expected to persist through early Thursday
morning. Thereafter winds will diminish slightly and remain
generally fresh to strong across the basin west of the cold front
through Thursday night as the low moves NE into the SW North Atlc
region. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

A 1008 mb low is centered near 30N67W with the associated cold
front extending SW to the SE Bahamas near 22N75W. The existing
pressure gradient remains strong within the NE and E quadrants of
the low generating near gale to gale force S-SE winds within 150 
nm of the center within the eastern quadrant. These conditions 
will persist through the overnight hours diminishing across the
discussion area by Thursday night. See the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 
09N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N19W to
06N26W to 06N33W to 04N40W to 07N52W to 06N57W. A surface trough 
is analyzed N of the ITCZ from 08N51W to 14N47W. Widely scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-05N between
the Prime Meridian and 02W...and from 03N-10N between 10W-18W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-15N between 23W-36W.


An amplified middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor
imagery over the basin with axis extending from over southern
Alabama near 32N88W to a base over southern Mexico near 17N99W.
This troughing supports the Special Features low analyzed across
the eastern Gulf and resulting near gale to gale force winds noted
west of the front. The low will be swift to move NE and into the
SW North Atlc region by Thursday night as the front continues
across the Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters clearing east of
the basin by Saturday. Until then...northerly winds are expected
as high pressure will influence much of the basin through the

A surface trough extends along 81W across the western Caribbean 
with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring N of 13N
between 72W-84W. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring S
of 13N between 73W-85W in close proximity to the monsoon trough
analyzed along 10N/11N. Otherwise...mainly gentle to moderate
trades are occurring E of 80W. Little change is expected through
Sunday night.

Increased cloudiness and isolated showers are possible across
western portions of the island through the overnight hours as more
active convection lies across the Windward Passage region and
adjacent coastal waters W of 72W in association with a favorable
divergent environment within southwesterly flow aloft.

A cold front enters the SW North Atlc region near 32N71W and 
becomes stationary to 30N76W then to the Florida peninsula near 
29N81W and into the Special Features 1012 mb low centered across 
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While the front remains relatively
benign...the SW North Atlc 1008 mb Special Feature low centered
near 30N67W is supported aloft by a mid-level shortwave in the
vicinity of 26N66W and continues to generate scattered showers and
tstms N of 23N between 58W-67W. Farther east...a weakening cold
front slices across northern portions of the discussion area from
32N28W W-SW to 29N40W to 27N53W. Isolated showers are occurring
within 75 nm either side of the front. Lastly...a weak 1012 mb low
is centered near 20N43W with a surface trough analyzed NE from the
low to 24N32W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm N of the

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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Nov-2017 05:40:54 UTC