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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280945
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
21N28W TO 10N29W MOVING W AT 20 KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
ALONG WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ENHANCE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 13N-15N WITHIN 130 NM WEST OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. NO CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST 
CONTINUE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N40W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN 
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 18N63W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 17N WHICH ALONG WITH 
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-17N EAST OF 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 22N79W TO 9N81W...MOVING WEST AT 20-25 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL 
INVERTED TROUGH SUPPORTS THIS WAVE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
ARE N OF 19N BETWEEN 78W-83W AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-85W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 75W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N27W TO 9N37W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-28W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF BEING SUPPORTED 
BY A MIDDLE LEVEL ELONGATED INVERTED TROUGH. THIS TROUGHINESS 
ALOFT SUPPORT A 1009 MB LOW BEING ANALYZED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 
26N96W AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N89W...ACROSS THE EASTERN 
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 17N91W. MIDDLE-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BEING 
GENERATED BY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED ON THE SW N 
ATLC ALONG WITH HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
TROUGH FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 85W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
ANALYZED NEAR THE LOW CENTER N OF 25N W OF 94W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SW TO 24N81W TO 
20N85W...ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. E-SE WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT 
DOMINATES THE EASTERN AND NW GULF WHILE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE IS PRESENT ON THE SW BASIN. THE AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE ON THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW INTO NE MEXICO 
LATER TODAY. THE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
WESTWARD TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE IT DISSIPATES THU 
NIGHT. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

AN UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORTING A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW 
BASIN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN BASIN GENERATING 
SHOWERS. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE ALONG A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
GENERATED BY WEAK RIDGE ON THE EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC COASTLINE. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT TRADES 
OF 20-25 KT IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO 
ADJACENT WATERS. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. RAINSHOWER 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS GREAT 
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

A LOW-LEVEL DRY ENVIRONMENT PREVAILS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF 
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT S-SE OF THE ISLAND 
ALONG WITH MODERATE MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COASTLINE. A 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NEAR THE ISLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 
ENHANCING SHOWERS MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND COASTAL 
WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A COL OR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS 
ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE SW N ATLC 
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 
70W-75W. NEARBY TO THE SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS SW ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THAT REGION. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FARTHER EAST FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 58W-61W.  
OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Aug-2014 09:46:06 UTC